#美国中期选举倒计时，美股博弈窗口已开启？
U.S. inflation has not cooled noticeably, while the U.S. economy remains resilient. The Fed may need to keep interest rates high for longer, or even raise them further.
BTC: Bearish in the short term. Expectations of high interest rates may weigh on risk appetite, and investors may reduce their allocations to crypto assets. If BTC rebounds but fails to break through key resistance levels while open interest (OI) rises, watch out for a buildup of leveraged long positions. Personally, I lean bearish.
U.S. stocks: Tech growth stocks are under pressure. Keeping interest rates high reduces the present value of future earnings, making highly valued tech stocks more vulnerable. Pay particular attention to semiconductors, AI, and high-growth stocks with high valuations. However, U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, so I remain bullish in the long term.
Gold: Under pressure in the short term, but that does not mean the longer-term outlook has fundamentally changed. Rising rate expectations usually increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. If the dollar and Treasury yields strengthen at the same time, gold could remain under pressure. If the market instead becomes concerned about a recession or geopolitical risks, gold may still attract safe-haven buying. Watch the 4,000 level.
What should we focus on next?
Whether the Fed raises rates in December: Pay close attention to upcoming inflation and employment data, as well as comments from officials.
Treasury yields and the dollar: Assess whether expectations for tighter monetary policy continue to strengthen.
BTC price and OI movements: Watch whether any decline is driven by spot investors pulling out or by leveraged liquidations.
The performance of the U.S. tech sector: If stocks keep falling despite strong earnings, it may indicate that the market is lowering valuations.
Join my Binance Square group: https://app.binance.com/uni-qr/4g6AR39e
U.S. inflation has not cooled noticeably, while the U.S. economy remains resilient. The Fed may need to keep interest rates high for longer, or even raise them further.
BTC: Bearish in the short term. Expectations of high interest rates may weigh on risk appetite, and investors may reduce their allocations to crypto assets. If BTC rebounds but fails to break through key resistance levels while open interest (OI) rises, watch out for a buildup of leveraged long positions. Personally, I lean bearish.
U.S. stocks: Tech growth stocks are under pressure. Keeping interest rates high reduces the present value of future earnings, making highly valued tech stocks more vulnerable. Pay particular attention to semiconductors, AI, and high-growth stocks with high valuations. However, U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, so I remain bullish in the long term.
Gold: Under pressure in the short term, but that does not mean the longer-term outlook has fundamentally changed. Rising rate expectations usually increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. If the dollar and Treasury yields strengthen at the same time, gold could remain under pressure. If the market instead becomes concerned about a recession or geopolitical risks, gold may still attract safe-haven buying. Watch the 4,000 level.
What should we focus on next?
Whether the Fed raises rates in December: Pay close attention to upcoming inflation and employment data, as well as comments from officials.
Treasury yields and the dollar: Assess whether expectations for tighter monetary policy continue to strengthen.
BTC price and OI movements: Watch whether any decline is driven by spot investors pulling out or by leveraged liquidations.
The performance of the U.S. tech sector: If stocks keep falling despite strong earnings, it may indicate that the market is lowering valuations.
Join my Binance Square group: https://app.binance.com/uni-qr/4g6AR39e