Down 23%—with a drop that steep, wouldn’t you get completely liquidated?
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老腊肉-kevin
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#美国中期选举倒计时，美股博弈窗口已开启？ Profits exploded, guidance collapsed: What happened to Intel’s 23% plunge?
Intel’s Q3 results were actually pretty strong. Revenue was $16.51 billion, up 21% year over year, and adjusted EPS was $0.52, nearly 30% above expectations of $0.41.
Data center and AI revenue hit $7.3 billion, surging nearly 80% year over year—the strongest quarter in 15 years. At this pace, DCAI’s full-year revenue could come in nearly $10 billion above expectations from the start of the year.
But after hours, the stock was hammered by 23%, plunging from $92 to $70.89 and wiping out more than 740 billion yuan in market value. It wasn’t Q3 that did the damage—it was the Q4 guidance and the 2027 numbers.
Q4 gross margin guidance fell to 38%. An incident at Israel’s Fab 28 also took another $300 million off revenue and 200 basis points off gross margin. The PC business is in even worse shape: rising memory prices are pushing up the cost of complete systems, corporate IT buyers are pulling back, and OEMs are aggressively destocking. Management itself said PC weakness is expected to continue through 2027.
The most painful line on the earnings call: capital spending will “increase significantly” in 2027, and free cash flow is expected to be negative. Equipment purchase orders have already fallen nearly 40% quarter over quarter, while the Intel 3 expansion, 18A ramp-up, and early 14A investments are all converging in the same year.
What does the market think? Opinions are sharply divided, but actions speak louder than words.
Jefferies cut its price target from $120 to $85, while Piper lowered its target from $110 to $90. Before the earnings report, New Street was still rating the stock a Buy with a $125 price target, betting that a structural CPU shortage could support the turnaround story. But the after-hours selloff shows that, for now, investors care only about cash flow—not the story. $INTC $SOXL $KORU
Intel’s Q3 results were actually pretty strong. Revenue was $16.51 billion, up 21% year over year, and adjusted EPS was $0.52, nearly 30% above expectations of $0.41.
Data center and AI revenue hit $7.3 billion, surging nearly 80% year over year—the strongest quarter in 15 years. At this pace, DCAI’s full-year revenue could come in nearly $10 billion above expectations from the start of the year.
But after hours, the stock was hammered by 23%, plunging from $92 to $70.89 and wiping out more than 740 billion yuan in market value. It wasn’t Q3 that did the damage—it was the Q4 guidance and the 2027 numbers.
Q4 gross margin guidance fell to 38%. An incident at Israel’s Fab 28 also took another $300 million off revenue and 200 basis points off gross margin. The PC business is in even worse shape: rising memory prices are pushing up the cost of complete systems, corporate IT buyers are pulling back, and OEMs are aggressively destocking. Management itself said PC weakness is expected to continue through 2027.
The most painful line on the earnings call: capital spending will “increase significantly” in 2027, and free cash flow is expected to be negative. Equipment purchase orders have already fallen nearly 40% quarter over quarter, while the Intel 3 expansion, 18A ramp-up, and early 14A investments are all converging in the same year.
What does the market think? Opinions are sharply divided, but actions speak louder than words.
Jefferies cut its price target from $120 to $85, while Piper lowered its target from $110 to $90. Before the earnings report, New Street was still rating the stock a Buy with a $125 price target, betting that a structural CPU shortage could support the turnaround story. But the after-hours selloff shows that, for now, investors care only about cash flow—not the story. $INTC $SOXL $KORU
