Russia’s central bank has introduced new rules restricting domestic investors from using non-custodial wallets directly, while preserving an exemption channel specifically for international settlements. This creates two distinct regulatory frameworks: one for domestic activity and another for international transactions. Domestic investment and trading will gradually be brought under custodial arrangements. Funds may first be transferred from a domestically hosted wallet to a compliant overseas custodian, and then moved to a non-custodial wallet for cross-border payments. Under the plan, direct P2P cryptocurrency transactions between individuals will also be prohibited from July 1, 2027.

This framework does not amount to a blanket ban on crypto. Its core aim is to contain risks in domestic trading while preserving channels for cross-border settlement. It is clearly negative for decentralized peer-to-peer trading, but creates long-term opportunities for compliant stablecoins and cross-border settlement infrastructure. Going forward, the crypto sector is likely to shift further toward systems with regulatory backing that can be used for cross-border clearing, while purely permissionless over-the-counter trading by retail investors will remain under pressure. In the short term, the main driver will be shifting expectations; the real impact will depend on the details yet to be implemented. Those participating in related assets should remain alert to volatility caused by potential policy reversals.