#btc
$5.8 billion moved overnight. The amount that may truly be unrecoverable could be just $1 billion 🦖

🧭 群里聊方向

On October 29, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange disclosed a massive abnormal outflow of assets.
Third-party monitoring firms estimated the amount at between $5.5 billion and $5.8 billion, with multiple media outlets calling it the biggest theft in crypto history.
The hot wallets were affected; cold reserves were untouched. The platform suspended withdrawals and Alpha trading that day.

First, let's look at how much money has been frozen.
The platform said this morning that it had verified $2.54 billion in frozen assets.
Tether froze more than 1.567 billion USDT, Paxos froze 1,906 PAXG, and World Liberty Financial froze $27 million in USD1.
The key reason these assets could be frozen is that around 40% of them were stablecoins, and their issuers have a blacklist switch ⚖️

The hackers are rotating their holdings.
Lookonchain monitoring shows that the attackers are swapping altcoins like PEPE, UNI, and LINK for ETH on-chain.
They currently still hold around 217 million ENA, worth about $39.51 million; 7.58 trillion PEPE, worth about $34.41 million; 2.575 million LINK, worth about $28.07 million; and 128,000 AAVE, worth about $15.9 million.
Altcoins have poor liquidity, so they can't dump everything at once and have to sell gradually in batches.

What's more unsettling isn't what has already happened, but the door that's still open ⚠️
A co-founder of a wallet infrastructure company pointed out that more than two hours after the incident, the EIP-7702 delegations for 14 of the exchange's hot wallets had still not been revoked.
Another transfer of 2,961 ETH is stuck pending because the gas fee was set too low.
Once the base fee drops below 4.4 gwei, the attacker may well try to transfer those funds again.
When EIP-7702 entered community discussions in October 2024, developers had already warned that the mechanism would make signatures harder to simulate. If abused, it could allow a wallet's native tokens and valuable assets to be taken all at once.

The market's reaction was immediate.
BNB fell about 8% to $698, BTC fell 4% to $77,940, ETH fell 4.4%, and SOL fell 6.4%.
More than $1.1 billion in positions were liquidated across the market in the past 24 hours, including $350 million in Bitcoin 💥
The platform said the actual loss could be slightly more than $1 billion, and that it would cover the full amount.

In my view, what matters about this incident isn't the $5.8 billion headline.
The authorization model for hot wallets is more vulnerable than the private keys themselves. Once a delegation is written into an account, whether it can be revoked depends on how quickly people respond afterward.
Stablecoin issuers' ability to freeze assets has been tested at this scale for the first time. The fact that 40% of the assets were frozen shows that centralization can be an asset, not a liability, when fighting a fire.
Recovering funds and fixing the vulnerability are two separate things. The funds are being frozen, but the door is still open.

One last thing for holders:
The balance in your exchange account is a liability the platform owes you, not an asset held in your name.
Diversification isn't just a slogan; it's the only action you can control yourself.

How much of your portfolio is currently on exchanges, and how much is in your own wallet?
Let's talk in the comments.

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