The prize pool looks big, but the per-person share could be less than 5U. Let's break the rules down into arithmetic first. These Kenyan M-Pesa instant transfer and bill payment promotions usually have prize pools of tens of thousands of USDT. To qualify, new users have to complete their first transaction. The amount isn't high, but it has to be a genuine transaction. Suppose the prize pool is 50,000U and 20,000 people actually participate—that's 2.5U per person. Even with only 10,000 participants, it's 5U each. What about the cost? Assuming 100U of capital is tied up for 7 days, plus the time spent registering, verifying your account, and placing the trade, that's at least an hour. Put simply, the expected return is 5U for an hour's work—an hourly rate of 5U. I'd be better off watching the market. I probably won't participate: the capital efficiency is too low, and the rules say rewards are distributed in a queue. Honestly, the more important question is: would you tie up 100U of capital for a week for an expected return of 5U?

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In this market, do you trade based on structure, or just look at moving averages?