#纳指100期货下跌0.9% SanDisk and Intel: which one to pick before earnings?
The market is still getting sold off, and both SanDisk and Intel will report after the close tomorrow night, but the difficulty of these two reports is completely different.
SanDisk is around 1404 right now. On Wednesday, it got a big 7-point green candle from SK hynix’s news that memory is “running short until 2030.”
The options market is pricing in nearly 10% volatility after earnings, but the stock is now stuck below the 50-day moving average, with RSI only around 45. A classic case of “the news lifted it, but the technicals haven’t caught up.”
What’s even more uncomfortable is that this morning it also slid with the semiconductor sector, suggesting some money is front-running the earnings release. At this level, going long is a bet that the NAND price-increase story keeps holding up, but a large part of the payoff has already been eaten up by the more than 400-point rally earlier. Catching the falling knife is not a small risk.
Intel closed around 95.5, down more than 20 points this month, and options-implied volatility is only around 8%, much lower than the actual moves seen in previous earnings releases.
The market doesn’t expect much from it. The PC side is being squeezed by memory price increases, and the real focus is entirely on the server CPU line. The key area is around 85 to 90. As long as the earnings report doesn’t break the server narrative, the downside is relatively limited.
From a trading perspective: SanDisk is “a good story in a bad spot,” while Intel is “bad expectations, but a floor underneath.” In this market, going long SanDisk means chasing the news, while going long Intel means betting on the gap between expectations and reality. If I had to choose, Intel has the more comfortable risk-reward$SNDK $INTC $SOXL #美国中期选举倒计时，美股博弈窗口已开启？
The market is still getting sold off, and both SanDisk and Intel will report after the close tomorrow night, but the difficulty of these two reports is completely different.
SanDisk is around 1404 right now. On Wednesday, it got a big 7-point green candle from SK hynix’s news that memory is “running short until 2030.”
The options market is pricing in nearly 10% volatility after earnings, but the stock is now stuck below the 50-day moving average, with RSI only around 45. A classic case of “the news lifted it, but the technicals haven’t caught up.”
What’s even more uncomfortable is that this morning it also slid with the semiconductor sector, suggesting some money is front-running the earnings release. At this level, going long is a bet that the NAND price-increase story keeps holding up, but a large part of the payoff has already been eaten up by the more than 400-point rally earlier. Catching the falling knife is not a small risk.
Intel closed around 95.5, down more than 20 points this month, and options-implied volatility is only around 8%, much lower than the actual moves seen in previous earnings releases.
The market doesn’t expect much from it. The PC side is being squeezed by memory price increases, and the real focus is entirely on the server CPU line. The key area is around 85 to 90. As long as the earnings report doesn’t break the server narrative, the downside is relatively limited.
From a trading perspective: SanDisk is “a good story in a bad spot,” while Intel is “bad expectations, but a floor underneath.” In this market, going long SanDisk means chasing the news, while going long Intel means betting on the gap between expectations and reality. If I had to choose, Intel has the more comfortable risk-reward$SNDK $INTC $SOXL #美国中期选举倒计时，美股博弈窗口已开启？
