Musinoot Observations | PREDICT token sale at $0.29, pre-market at $1.40; Opinion, on the same chain, saw daily trading volume fall to just 7% of its peak after launch
Binance Wallet is selling PREDICT today from 16:00–18:00 at $0.29 per token. Based on a total supply of 1 billion, that implies a valuation of $290 million. Binance pre-market futures quoted it at $1.40 at 16:26, implying a valuation of $1.4 billion.
Plenty of people have already worked out how much each order might get, and whether to claim the airdrop immediately or lock it for a year. This article takes a different angle: how much trading volume and how many fees does Predict.fun generate each day? And, for comparison, what happened to trading volume before and after Opinion—also on BNB Chain—launched its token in March?
🐋 Predict.fun in a minute
- A prediction market on BNB Chain. The project says funds can still earn yield while bets are open.
- You can also check its points (PP) in the Binance app under “Assets - Prediction Account.” Binance’s 10/28 announcement lists this path.
- The project says cumulative trading volume has exceeded $7 billion since launch; DefiLlama records $3.65 billion. Neither specifies its methodology.
- Season 1 points were snapshotted on 10/28, and Season 2 began at the same time. Points for market-making orders are now calculated based on the time orders are posted and actual trading volume.
🐋 Issuance and costs
- Total supply: 1 billion tokens, with 16% (160 million) unlocked at launch.
- This sale offers 20 million tokens (2%) and aims to raise $5.8 million. Each order is capped at 6 BNB; if oversubscribed, tokens will be allocated proportionally and excess funds refunded.
- Buying at $0.29 makes the $1.40 pre-market price 4.8x higher.
- 100 million tokens are allocated to the team and 260.5 million to early investors. Both allocations are fully locked at launch, then unlock monthly after 24 months and are fully released over 36 months.
- Season 1 airdrop: 70 million tokens (7%). Choose an immediate claim to receive 35%, with the remaining 65% forfeited; choose a 12-month lock to receive 100%. If everyone chooses an immediate claim, at most 24.5 million tokens will be released.
- Users with points in their Binance accounts who want tokens credited on launch day must submit the immediate-claim form by 17:00 today. Later submissions will be distributed in four batches on 11/6, 11/13, 11/20, and 11/27. If you don’t submit the form, your tokens will be locked for a year by default. The form can only be submitted once.
- This last point differs from the wording in an @predictdotfun post, which says that people who choose to lock their tokens can still switch to an immediate claim within one month of launch. Follow the rules of the respective channels.
🐋 Trading volume and fees
DefiLlama’s figures for the past 30 days (9/29–10/28):
- $406 million in trading volume and $8.06 million in fees. The protocol retained $2.01 million; the rest went to refunds, market-maker rebates, and referral rebates.
- At this rate, annual fees would be about $98 million, with protocol revenue of about $24.5 million.
- The $290 million valuation implied by the sale price is 3x annual fees and 12x protocol revenue; the $1.4 billion pre-market valuation is 14x and 57x, respectively.
- Average daily trading volume in the week before the Season 1 snapshot (10/21–10/26) was $17.08 million. The two days after the snapshot saw $14.63 million and $15.61 million.
🐋 A comparison: Opinion before and after its token launch
@opinionlabsxyz is also on BNB Chain. It launched its token through Binance Launchpool on March 5, and listed on Binance spot the same day.
- January monthly trading volume was $3.28 billion, or $106 million per day on average; in February it fell to $1.46 billion.
- After the token launch, average daily volume from 3/6–3/31 was $7.3 million, just 7% of January’s figure.
- Over the next seven months, monthly volume ranged from $240 million to $440 million, never returning to the start-of-year levels.
- OPN was around $0.46 on its Binance listing day, implying a $460 million valuation based on a 1 billion total supply. It is now $0.047, or $47 million.
Predict’s current daily volume is around $15 million—nearly twice Opinion’s post-launch figure, but just one-seventh of Opinion’s January peak.
There are also different trajectories: Limitless (LMTS) on Base launched its token on October 22, 2025. Monthly volume later rose to as much as $250 million (in May 2026), but this month it has reached just $870,000 so far.
The two projects’ figures on DefiLlama are not calculated in exactly the same way. Opinion’s volume excludes wallets identified as wash traders.
This article has not audited the contracts. Token allocations and claim rules are based on @predictdotfun’s tokenomics post and Binance’s announcement, both dated 10/28. Trading volume and fees are from DefiLlama (data retrieved at 16:20 on 10/29); OPN and LMTS prices are from CoinGecko.
Season 2 points are already accruing. After PREDICT launches, how many tokens will be allocated each season from the ecosystem and community share?
——
First published on X by @musinoot
Binance Wallet is selling PREDICT today from 16:00–18:00 at $0.29 per token. Based on a total supply of 1 billion, that implies a valuation of $290 million. Binance pre-market futures quoted it at $1.40 at 16:26, implying a valuation of $1.4 billion.
Plenty of people have already worked out how much each order might get, and whether to claim the airdrop immediately or lock it for a year. This article takes a different angle: how much trading volume and how many fees does Predict.fun generate each day? And, for comparison, what happened to trading volume before and after Opinion—also on BNB Chain—launched its token in March?
🐋 Predict.fun in a minute
- A prediction market on BNB Chain. The project says funds can still earn yield while bets are open.
- You can also check its points (PP) in the Binance app under “Assets - Prediction Account.” Binance’s 10/28 announcement lists this path.
- The project says cumulative trading volume has exceeded $7 billion since launch; DefiLlama records $3.65 billion. Neither specifies its methodology.
- Season 1 points were snapshotted on 10/28, and Season 2 began at the same time. Points for market-making orders are now calculated based on the time orders are posted and actual trading volume.
🐋 Issuance and costs
- Total supply: 1 billion tokens, with 16% (160 million) unlocked at launch.
- This sale offers 20 million tokens (2%) and aims to raise $5.8 million. Each order is capped at 6 BNB; if oversubscribed, tokens will be allocated proportionally and excess funds refunded.
- Buying at $0.29 makes the $1.40 pre-market price 4.8x higher.
- 100 million tokens are allocated to the team and 260.5 million to early investors. Both allocations are fully locked at launch, then unlock monthly after 24 months and are fully released over 36 months.
- Season 1 airdrop: 70 million tokens (7%). Choose an immediate claim to receive 35%, with the remaining 65% forfeited; choose a 12-month lock to receive 100%. If everyone chooses an immediate claim, at most 24.5 million tokens will be released.
- Users with points in their Binance accounts who want tokens credited on launch day must submit the immediate-claim form by 17:00 today. Later submissions will be distributed in four batches on 11/6, 11/13, 11/20, and 11/27. If you don’t submit the form, your tokens will be locked for a year by default. The form can only be submitted once.
- This last point differs from the wording in an @predictdotfun post, which says that people who choose to lock their tokens can still switch to an immediate claim within one month of launch. Follow the rules of the respective channels.
🐋 Trading volume and fees
DefiLlama’s figures for the past 30 days (9/29–10/28):
- $406 million in trading volume and $8.06 million in fees. The protocol retained $2.01 million; the rest went to refunds, market-maker rebates, and referral rebates.
- At this rate, annual fees would be about $98 million, with protocol revenue of about $24.5 million.
- The $290 million valuation implied by the sale price is 3x annual fees and 12x protocol revenue; the $1.4 billion pre-market valuation is 14x and 57x, respectively.
- Average daily trading volume in the week before the Season 1 snapshot (10/21–10/26) was $17.08 million. The two days after the snapshot saw $14.63 million and $15.61 million.
🐋 A comparison: Opinion before and after its token launch
@opinionlabsxyz is also on BNB Chain. It launched its token through Binance Launchpool on March 5, and listed on Binance spot the same day.
- January monthly trading volume was $3.28 billion, or $106 million per day on average; in February it fell to $1.46 billion.
- After the token launch, average daily volume from 3/6–3/31 was $7.3 million, just 7% of January’s figure.
- Over the next seven months, monthly volume ranged from $240 million to $440 million, never returning to the start-of-year levels.
- OPN was around $0.46 on its Binance listing day, implying a $460 million valuation based on a 1 billion total supply. It is now $0.047, or $47 million.
Predict’s current daily volume is around $15 million—nearly twice Opinion’s post-launch figure, but just one-seventh of Opinion’s January peak.
There are also different trajectories: Limitless (LMTS) on Base launched its token on October 22, 2025. Monthly volume later rose to as much as $250 million (in May 2026), but this month it has reached just $870,000 so far.
The two projects’ figures on DefiLlama are not calculated in exactly the same way. Opinion’s volume excludes wallets identified as wash traders.
This article has not audited the contracts. Token allocations and claim rules are based on @predictdotfun’s tokenomics post and Binance’s announcement, both dated 10/28. Trading volume and fees are from DefiLlama (data retrieved at 16:20 on 10/29); OPN and LMTS prices are from CoinGecko.
Season 2 points are already accruing. After PREDICT launches, how many tokens will be allocated each season from the ecosystem and community share?
——
First published on X by @musinoot
