BTC is seeing ETF inflows return, but ETH’s capital flows have not strengthened in tandem. This is more important to understand first than “when will Ethereum catch up?”

As of publication on October 29, the BiyaPay market page showed ETH at around $2,317 and BTC at around $80,000. These are snapshots from the page, not closing prices for the day. What is really worth discussing is that, following the same Federal Reserve meeting, different assets saw varying levels of buying support.

Data shows that U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $88.6 million on October 26, $60.2 million on the 27th, and another $21.4 million on the 28th, for a combined outflow of about $170 million over three trading days. Over the same period, Bitcoin ETFs saw combined net inflows of about $424 million.

This comparison cannot prove that all capital is “selling ETH and buying BTC.” The two types of funds differ in size, investors, and demand for holdings. But it does at least remind us that the same macro environment does not mean every asset will receive the same level of new buying.

When looking at ETH, I first distinguish a price rebound from a return of capital. If BTC rises and lifts sentiment, ETH may also rebound; but a more sustained rally would need support from demand of its own. Consecutive ETF outflows mean demand for shares through this channel is contracting, but that cannot be directly equated with the entire market selling. Other spot buying, portfolio adjustments, and derivatives positions will still affect the price.

So, a single day of positive ETF flows is worth watching, but improvement over several consecutive days would be more convincing. High trading volume does not necessarily mean large net buying; frequent turnover and new capital are two different things.

The second question is whether ecosystem activity can translate into demand for ETH itself. Growth in stablecoins, trading, and applications can reflect the network’s utility, but revenue generated by applications does not automatically accrue in full to ETH holders. We also need to consider which layer the activity takes place on, how much users pay in fees, and how this usage affects ETH’s burn, holding, and circulation.

So, there needs to be a concrete explanation of how “another popular project in the ecosystem” leads to “greater long-term demand for ETH.” Simply adding up project popularity can lead us to overestimate the value support the token has actually gained.

Third, we need to see whether ETH is gaining ground relative to BTC. A rise in its dollar price may mainly reflect a broader market recovery; strength against BTC is a better sign that investors are developing a greater preference for ETH. But this ratio also needs to be watched over time—we shouldn’t declare capital rotation complete just because of a rebound lasting a few hours.

When studying these differences, market tracking should also go hand in hand with managing capital. BiyaPay connects digital assets, U.S. stock-related services, and currency exchange through a single technical interface, making it easier to compare different markets and manage accounts. You can convert USDT to USD and then trade U.S. and Hong Kong stocks directly, seamlessly connecting on-chain funds with securities markets. You can also convert cryptocurrency to fiat and invest in digital assets with ease.

Going forward, I’m paying closer attention to whether ETF outflows ease, whether ETH continues to improve relative to BTC, and whether network usage creates clearer demand for the token. If several indicators improve together, the rebound will have a stronger basis. If the price rises only in tandem with BTC, without capital and demand following, we should remain cautious in our assessment.

Whether ETH is worth paying attention to depends on what kind of demand it can attract, not on how much cheaper it is than a past high. A steep decline does not automatically mean it is undervalued, and a rebound does not automatically mean the trend has changed.
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