Tonight, the Fed is all but certain to leave interest rates unchanged—the data puts the odds above 90%.
The real intrigue lies in the details. The market expects two to three hawkish dissenting votes this time, with fierce internal disagreements. Macroeconomic data have all come in hotter than expected, and the odds of a rate hike in December have even climbed back above 80%.
Everyone is now watching Warsh’s wording at the press conference to see whether this pause is a comma or a full stop. Macro conditions can shift at any moment, so don’t rush to bet on one direction with high-volatility assets like PEPE. Be careful not to get whipsawed by Fed officials’ rhetoric.
The real intrigue lies in the details. The market expects two to three hawkish dissenting votes this time, with fierce internal disagreements. Macroeconomic data have all come in hotter than expected, and the odds of a rate hike in December have even climbed back above 80%.
Everyone is now watching Warsh’s wording at the press conference to see whether this pause is a comma or a full stop. Macro conditions can shift at any moment, so don’t rush to bet on one direction with high-volatility assets like PEPE. Be careful not to get whipsawed by Fed officials’ rhetoric.
