#fomc会议
The Fed stood pat once again—but two officials dissented on the spot, calling for a rate hike 🦖
🚨 行情变了群里说
At 2 a.m. Beijing time today, the Fed announced it would keep its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% to 4.00%. The vote was 10–2, with Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack dissenting; both called for another 25-basis-point hike. This was the first meeting since September’s unanimous 12–0 rate hike. The statement’s description of the economy was upgraded from “solid” to “strong.”
Bitcoin’s reaction was restrained. It rose just 0.2% after the decision, to around $80,950. It briefly touched a session high of $81,600 before slipping back. The $81,000–$82,500 range has capped several rallies this year 📉
The real thing to watch is December. Before the decision, markets were pricing in a more than 70% chance of another 25-basis-point hike at the December 8–9 meeting. Most officials also thought another hike would be warranted before year-end, according to the minutes of the September meeting. So holding rates steady this time looks more like saving ammunition for December than changing course.
Why are they willing to stay this tough? Oil is still at $99.90 a barrel, with geopolitical conflicts choking global supply. September CPI was up 3.7% year over year, and gasoline alone rose 9.1% in a single month. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.99%, after reaching 5.31% on October 5 ⚠️ With risk-free returns close to 5%, there’s little reason for money to rush into volatile assets.
My take: keeping rates unchanged was expected. A 90% probability had already been priced in, according to CME FedWatch. The real signal was those two dissenting votes—the committee already has members who don’t want to wait. If the November 6 jobs report and November 10 CPI come in a little hotter, a December hike could easily be back on the table. Conversely, if the data turns lower, that 70% bet will unwind quickly, and the market will likely rally first.
Leverage is especially dangerous at times like this. In August, after Waller spoke at Jackson Hole, about $481 million in crypto positions were liquidated within 24 hours 💥 Price whipsaws on Fed decision nights are nothing new.
Do you think December will bring a real rate hike, or another round of tough talk?
Share your thoughts in the comments.
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, I’ll help you follow Fed and Bitcoin developments—not just what’s happening, but also the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
The Fed stood pat once again—but two officials dissented on the spot, calling for a rate hike 🦖
🚨 行情变了群里说
At 2 a.m. Beijing time today, the Fed announced it would keep its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% to 4.00%. The vote was 10–2, with Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack dissenting; both called for another 25-basis-point hike. This was the first meeting since September’s unanimous 12–0 rate hike. The statement’s description of the economy was upgraded from “solid” to “strong.”
Bitcoin’s reaction was restrained. It rose just 0.2% after the decision, to around $80,950. It briefly touched a session high of $81,600 before slipping back. The $81,000–$82,500 range has capped several rallies this year 📉
The real thing to watch is December. Before the decision, markets were pricing in a more than 70% chance of another 25-basis-point hike at the December 8–9 meeting. Most officials also thought another hike would be warranted before year-end, according to the minutes of the September meeting. So holding rates steady this time looks more like saving ammunition for December than changing course.
Why are they willing to stay this tough? Oil is still at $99.90 a barrel, with geopolitical conflicts choking global supply. September CPI was up 3.7% year over year, and gasoline alone rose 9.1% in a single month. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.99%, after reaching 5.31% on October 5 ⚠️ With risk-free returns close to 5%, there’s little reason for money to rush into volatile assets.
My take: keeping rates unchanged was expected. A 90% probability had already been priced in, according to CME FedWatch. The real signal was those two dissenting votes—the committee already has members who don’t want to wait. If the November 6 jobs report and November 10 CPI come in a little hotter, a December hike could easily be back on the table. Conversely, if the data turns lower, that 70% bet will unwind quickly, and the market will likely rally first.
Leverage is especially dangerous at times like this. In August, after Waller spoke at Jackson Hole, about $481 million in crypto positions were liquidated within 24 hours 💥 Price whipsaws on Fed decision nights are nothing new.
Do you think December will bring a real rate hike, or another round of tough talk?
Share your thoughts in the comments.
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, I’ll help you follow Fed and Bitcoin developments—not just what’s happening, but also the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
