Fed Chair Warsh just laid out the new playbook, and it's a clear shift in how the Fed operates:
Starting Fall 2027, they're cutting one rate vote. By 2028, only 6 policy meetings instead of 8. Translation: fewer decisions, more time between moves.
Warsh won't call conditions "tight" yet. Inflation's still elevated. The consensus? The medicine is working, but they need more proof.
This is classic "wait and see" mode. The Fed is slowing down, watching the data, and refusing to rush. For markets, that means less frequent policy surprises but also longer stretches of uncertainty between meetings.
If you're trading rate-sensitive stocks or planning currency moves, this timeline matters. Fewer meetings = bigger weight on each one. Pay attention to the data drops between now and those 6 annual decisions.
Starting Fall 2027, they're cutting one rate vote. By 2028, only 6 policy meetings instead of 8. Translation: fewer decisions, more time between moves.
Warsh won't call conditions "tight" yet. Inflation's still elevated. The consensus? The medicine is working, but they need more proof.
This is classic "wait and see" mode. The Fed is slowing down, watching the data, and refusing to rush. For markets, that means less frequent policy surprises but also longer stretches of uncertainty between meetings.
If you're trading rate-sensitive stocks or planning currency moves, this timeline matters. Fewer meetings = bigger weight on each one. Pay attention to the data drops between now and those 6 annual decisions.