Before the FOMC: BTC rose, but leverage didn’t follow
CoinDesk derivatives snapshot: Over the past 24 hours, crypto futures trading volume rose about 7.5% to $163.2 billion, while open interest increased just 1.3%. Liquidations jumped about 38% to $183.6 million. BTC rose about 2.3%, while OI actually slipped 0.1%; the funding rate was a relatively mild 0.0090%—this move looks more spot-driven than fueled by a fresh surge in leverage. ZEC open interest rose 14%, well above its roughly 6.3% price gain, making it the clearest case of capital inflows among major coins. Deribit’s one-week put-call skew plunged from nearly 10% to under 1%, signaling cooling demand for short-term protection, though the 1-, 3- and 6-month skews remain put-biased. The most actively traded options over 24 hours were $65,000 puts expiring 10/30 for BTC and $3,400 calls expiring 10/29 for ETH.
【View】
Prices are up, but positions haven’t grown much, suggesting bulls are still waiting for the decision and aren’t ready to go all in. The sharp drop in skew reflects improving sentiment, but traders are still buying protection over the medium and long term—the market is keeping some powder dry for the FOMC and the weekend options expiry.
【Opportunities/Risks】
Watch the decision and Warsh’s press conference at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday; whether the daily close can reclaim 82,500; and the 10/30 options expiry and max-pain zone. If there are ≥3 dissenting votes or the language is hawkish, the spot rally could quickly fade.
With this pre-FOMC rally pushing past 81,000, do you think it’s spot accumulation or leveraged traders lying in wait for a gamble?
#比特币 #FOMC #衍生品 $BTC $ETH
For reference only; not investment advice.
CoinDesk derivatives snapshot: Over the past 24 hours, crypto futures trading volume rose about 7.5% to $163.2 billion, while open interest increased just 1.3%. Liquidations jumped about 38% to $183.6 million. BTC rose about 2.3%, while OI actually slipped 0.1%; the funding rate was a relatively mild 0.0090%—this move looks more spot-driven than fueled by a fresh surge in leverage. ZEC open interest rose 14%, well above its roughly 6.3% price gain, making it the clearest case of capital inflows among major coins. Deribit’s one-week put-call skew plunged from nearly 10% to under 1%, signaling cooling demand for short-term protection, though the 1-, 3- and 6-month skews remain put-biased. The most actively traded options over 24 hours were $65,000 puts expiring 10/30 for BTC and $3,400 calls expiring 10/29 for ETH.
【View】
Prices are up, but positions haven’t grown much, suggesting bulls are still waiting for the decision and aren’t ready to go all in. The sharp drop in skew reflects improving sentiment, but traders are still buying protection over the medium and long term—the market is keeping some powder dry for the FOMC and the weekend options expiry.
【Opportunities/Risks】
Watch the decision and Warsh’s press conference at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday; whether the daily close can reclaim 82,500; and the 10/30 options expiry and max-pain zone. If there are ≥3 dissenting votes or the language is hawkish, the spot rally could quickly fade.
With this pre-FOMC rally pushing past 81,000, do you think it’s spot accumulation or leveraged traders lying in wait for a gamble?
#比特币 #FOMC #衍生品 $BTC $ETH
For reference only; not investment advice.
