Why doesn’t being “ten times below the all-time high” mean a coin has tenfold upside?
In crypto, there’s a valuation method that takes almost no brainpower: open the weekly chart, find the high, then work out how many times your money could grow if the price gets back there.
You haven’t even looked at the project, but you’ve already planned your retirement.
It took a few rounds of getting burned by altcoins to realize that an old high records what someone was willing to pay at the time—not a price the market promises to deliver again in the future.
If one hundred million tokens were in circulation last cycle and there are five hundred million now, then even if the price returns to where it was, the circulating market cap would have to be five times what it was back then.
And that’s not even mentioning how the hot narratives of the time may have long since faded, while the original buyers are still waiting for a rebound just to break even.
Looking back at positions that were “down 90%, so they must be cheap enough,” the harshest realization is often this: the price fell, but supply grew, while users and liquidity left. You thought you were buying an asset at a discount, but all you really did was catch a story from the last cycle that hadn’t finished being sold off.
Of course, old projects can grow again. But the reasons they deserve to be revalued should be new demand, improved competitiveness, and changes in token distribution—not one lonely, long wick on the historical chart.
The market may have another bull run, but it’s under no obligation to let every winner from the last cycle back onto the table.
Remember: an all-time high is a price traded in the past, not an IOU that must be repaid in the future. Don’t use the last cycle’s mania to guarantee this cycle’s bargain.
In crypto, there’s a valuation method that takes almost no brainpower: open the weekly chart, find the high, then work out how many times your money could grow if the price gets back there.
You haven’t even looked at the project, but you’ve already planned your retirement.
It took a few rounds of getting burned by altcoins to realize that an old high records what someone was willing to pay at the time—not a price the market promises to deliver again in the future.
If one hundred million tokens were in circulation last cycle and there are five hundred million now, then even if the price returns to where it was, the circulating market cap would have to be five times what it was back then.
And that’s not even mentioning how the hot narratives of the time may have long since faded, while the original buyers are still waiting for a rebound just to break even.
Looking back at positions that were “down 90%, so they must be cheap enough,” the harshest realization is often this: the price fell, but supply grew, while users and liquidity left. You thought you were buying an asset at a discount, but all you really did was catch a story from the last cycle that hadn’t finished being sold off.
Of course, old projects can grow again. But the reasons they deserve to be revalued should be new demand, improved competitiveness, and changes in token distribution—not one lonely, long wick on the historical chart.
The market may have another bull run, but it’s under no obligation to let every winner from the last cycle back onto the table.
Remember: an all-time high is a price traded in the past, not an IOU that must be repaid in the future. Don’t use the last cycle’s mania to guarantee this cycle’s bargain.