From 19:00 to 20:00, $INIT surged from 0.199 to 0.233 in one go, gaining about 17% in roughly two hours. The 24-hour contract is still up about 39%, with around $80 million in volume. The intraday high was 0.233 and the low was 0.157. With a rally like this, it’s easy for the market to read it as retail traders piling in on the long side and the trend being firmly established.
But the positioning during that final spike-hour told a completely different story. At 18:00, retail long accounts were still around 50.9%; by 19:00 they had fallen to 49.9%, and by 20:00 they were down to 45.1%. The price was making new highs while accounts chasing longs were pulling back. Whales’ long positions slid from around 60% in the morning to 54%, while the share of whale accounts holding longs plunged from 53% to 44.7%. Over the same period, open interest climbed from around 600 million tokens to 628 million, and the funding rate flipped to -0.044%. Shorts were paying—not longs adding positions to confirm a breakout. Unlike $BLESS this afternoon, where funding was still positive and longs were paying, shorts were digging in hard during this stretch of INIT.
The mechanism is simple: the price was pushed up by short covering, not by fresh retail longs lifting the floor. With funding still deeply negative and open interest still expanding, there’s still fuel for a short squeeze. Once funding moves back toward zero and open interest turns down, whoever is still holding longs at the spike top will be the first to feel the pain on a pullback.
Technically, the 1-hour RSI is around 78.6, the KDJ J-line is at 101.7, and price has pierced the upper Bollinger Band at 0.215. The upper Keltner Channel at 0.199 was left behind a while ago. EMA12 is at 0.192, EMA50 at 0.171, and ATR is about 4.9%. The structure is still above the 12-period moving average, but account positioning has already diverged from price in the opposite direction. This isn’t quiet consolidation at a base. The invalidation condition is clear: bulls will have genuinely taken over this move only if price holds above 0.22 while retail long accounts climb back above 52%.
I see this stretch around 0.23 as a short-squeeze spike, and I’m flat. Until funding recovers from deeply negative territory toward zero and open interest falls back below 600 million tokens, I’m watching the upper Bollinger Band at 0.215 as the first pullback level. If price can’t hold there, the next level is the 12-period moving average at 0.192; below that, the 50-period moving average at 0.171. I have no position in INIT right now.
$INIT #合约 #ShortSqueeze
But the positioning during that final spike-hour told a completely different story. At 18:00, retail long accounts were still around 50.9%; by 19:00 they had fallen to 49.9%, and by 20:00 they were down to 45.1%. The price was making new highs while accounts chasing longs were pulling back. Whales’ long positions slid from around 60% in the morning to 54%, while the share of whale accounts holding longs plunged from 53% to 44.7%. Over the same period, open interest climbed from around 600 million tokens to 628 million, and the funding rate flipped to -0.044%. Shorts were paying—not longs adding positions to confirm a breakout. Unlike $BLESS this afternoon, where funding was still positive and longs were paying, shorts were digging in hard during this stretch of INIT.
The mechanism is simple: the price was pushed up by short covering, not by fresh retail longs lifting the floor. With funding still deeply negative and open interest still expanding, there’s still fuel for a short squeeze. Once funding moves back toward zero and open interest turns down, whoever is still holding longs at the spike top will be the first to feel the pain on a pullback.
Technically, the 1-hour RSI is around 78.6, the KDJ J-line is at 101.7, and price has pierced the upper Bollinger Band at 0.215. The upper Keltner Channel at 0.199 was left behind a while ago. EMA12 is at 0.192, EMA50 at 0.171, and ATR is about 4.9%. The structure is still above the 12-period moving average, but account positioning has already diverged from price in the opposite direction. This isn’t quiet consolidation at a base. The invalidation condition is clear: bulls will have genuinely taken over this move only if price holds above 0.22 while retail long accounts climb back above 52%.
I see this stretch around 0.23 as a short-squeeze spike, and I’m flat. Until funding recovers from deeply negative territory toward zero and open interest falls back below 600 million tokens, I’m watching the upper Bollinger Band at 0.215 as the first pullback level. If price can’t hold there, the next level is the 12-period moving average at 0.192; below that, the 50-period moving average at 0.171. I have no position in INIT right now.
$INIT #合约 #ShortSqueeze
