Before the Fed announces its decision at 2 a.m. tonight, let’s take a look at a monthly ledger that stings a little 📉
BTC briefly climbed back above 81,000 during the day
ETFs also saw $176 million in net inflows on Tuesday, marking two straight days of inflows
Looks like things are recovering, right?
But zoom out to the full month, and the picture changes
BTC closed September at 83,567 and is now hovering around 80,800
It’s down about 4.2% so far in October
October has averaged an 18.1% gain over the past few years, making it a traditionally strong month
Last October’s 3.8% drop was already bad enough
If this October ends in the red, it’ll be the weakest October in six years
What stings even more is the picture among US buyers
According to CryptoQuant, the Coinbase premium hasn’t turned positive once all October
It fell to -0.146 on October 24, its lowest level since late June
Spot demand has been negative every day since October 14
In plain English: Americans have basically not been buying this month
The bull market score has also fallen from 90 to 60
We’re still in bull-market territory, but the cooldown is real
So I see today’s rebound as
A breather before the decision—not a sign that US buyers are back
The real test comes in the early hours: the decision itself will most likely be to hold rates steady
The key is how hawkish Warsh sounds about a December rate hike
What do you think—will US buyers come back after tonight?
Or is October going to end like this?
$BTC #比特币 #市场观察 #FederalReserve
Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.
BTC briefly climbed back above 81,000 during the day
ETFs also saw $176 million in net inflows on Tuesday, marking two straight days of inflows
Looks like things are recovering, right?
But zoom out to the full month, and the picture changes
BTC closed September at 83,567 and is now hovering around 80,800
It’s down about 4.2% so far in October
October has averaged an 18.1% gain over the past few years, making it a traditionally strong month
Last October’s 3.8% drop was already bad enough
If this October ends in the red, it’ll be the weakest October in six years
What stings even more is the picture among US buyers
According to CryptoQuant, the Coinbase premium hasn’t turned positive once all October
It fell to -0.146 on October 24, its lowest level since late June
Spot demand has been negative every day since October 14
In plain English: Americans have basically not been buying this month
The bull market score has also fallen from 90 to 60
We’re still in bull-market territory, but the cooldown is real
So I see today’s rebound as
A breather before the decision—not a sign that US buyers are back
The real test comes in the early hours: the decision itself will most likely be to hold rates steady
The key is how hawkish Warsh sounds about a December rate hike
What do you think—will US buyers come back after tonight?
Or is October going to end like this?
$BTC #比特币 #市场观察 #FederalReserve
Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.