First, let’s see where the money is going. I’m putting a question mark next to this bullish candle.
My first reaction after reviewing the data on SOXL’s high-volume breakout: don’t rush to treat it as a new trend. The setup leans slightly bearish and isn’t confirmed, so I’m not betting on a direction.
Although the price rallied +10.75% and 24-hour trading volume reached $2.94 billion, open interest moved just -0.4% in 1 hour and -0.1% in 3 hours. Open interest has basically not followed the price. That’s exactly why I’m reluctant to treat the breakout as confirmation. Plus, the current price is still 1.2% below the 24-hour high, suggesting it hasn’t fully held on after the spike.
I’m watching two key levels. A break below 103.53 would mean this breakout didn’t hold, and I’d accept that the structure has weakened. I’d only treat it as a bullish reversal if it moves above 104.88. I’m prepared to accept either outcome, with no room for ambiguity. When the price is caught in between, I’d rather stay out.
Maybe I really did get this one wrong. If the data changes later, I’ll address it directly in my next post.
Saying “I’m not sure” is worth more than making ten definitive calls.
— Where the Money’s Going · Today’s post No. 11. I keep track of right and wrong alike.
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