For this 2 a.m. rate decision, I think there’s little doubt they’ll hold rates steady. In a Reuters poll in late October, 94 of 100 economists expected no change, and CME FedWatch put the odds of a hold at around 90%.
What’s more interesting is December. In the same poll, all 100 economists expected another rate hike in December, and futures markets put the odds above 80%. So even if Warsh makes it clear at the 2:30 press conference that rates will rise in December, the market will probably just say, “Got it.”
What hasn’t been fully priced in is the terminal rate. Around 40% of economists think there’ll be at least two more hikes after that, while the market consensus is still pricing in just one. September’s annual CPI inflation rate of 3.7% and core rate of 2.6% were both higher than the previous month. If Warsh sounds more hawkish on inflation than “one more hike should do it,” the dollar and Treasury yields will move first, and highly leveraged crypto positions often take a hit in their wake.
What I’m really watching is whether he signals that they’ll stop after the December hike. If you’re heavily positioned tonight, there’s no need to jump the gun before the press conference. You can wait for him to speak before making a move.
#FOMC会议 $BTC
What’s more interesting is December. In the same poll, all 100 economists expected another rate hike in December, and futures markets put the odds above 80%. So even if Warsh makes it clear at the 2:30 press conference that rates will rise in December, the market will probably just say, “Got it.”
What hasn’t been fully priced in is the terminal rate. Around 40% of economists think there’ll be at least two more hikes after that, while the market consensus is still pricing in just one. September’s annual CPI inflation rate of 3.7% and core rate of 2.6% were both higher than the previous month. If Warsh sounds more hawkish on inflation than “one more hike should do it,” the dollar and Treasury yields will move first, and highly leveraged crypto positions often take a hit in their wake.
What I’m really watching is whether he signals that they’ll stop after the December hike. If you’re heavily positioned tonight, there’s no need to jump the gun before the press conference. You can wait for him to speak before making a move.
#FOMC会议 $BTC