【U.S. Earnings Preview · Microsoft】
Let’s take another look at Microsoft $MSFTB . It reports its FY2027 Q1 results after the market closes tonight (4 a.m. Beijing time on the 29th). The stock closed at $531.33, up about 10% year to date and 40% since its July earnings report. The market expects revenue of $90.7 billion, EPS of $4.72, and Azure growth of 45%; the company’s own guidance is $89.85 billion to $90.95 billion.
The benefits are showing up first in contracts. Paid Copilot seats have topped 30 million, and commercial remaining performance obligations stand at $678 billion. But the weighted average term is only 2.3 years, with just about 30% expected to be recognized over the next 12 months.
Signed contracts aren’t revenue; timing is what matters. Pay closer attention to the accounting: starting in FY2027, the useful life used to depreciate data centers will increase from 15 years to 25 years. Some leases will be reclassified from finance leases to operating leases, bringing calendar 2026 capex down from about $190 billion to $175 billion. Spending this quarter is still over $50 billion. The money is still being spent; it just looks less painful on the books.
I’m not going to guess which way the stock will move ahead of earnings. If Azure growth slips to the lower end of the 44% range while capex remains above $50 billion, AI costs will show up in the income statement first. The payoff will only be realized if growth comes in above 45% and cloud gross margins stop falling. Morgan Stanley expects gross margin to decline by another 2 percentage points this year, to 65.8%.
#微软财报能否兑现AI红利 #BStocks #股票财报季
Let’s take another look at Microsoft $MSFTB . It reports its FY2027 Q1 results after the market closes tonight (4 a.m. Beijing time on the 29th). The stock closed at $531.33, up about 10% year to date and 40% since its July earnings report. The market expects revenue of $90.7 billion, EPS of $4.72, and Azure growth of 45%; the company’s own guidance is $89.85 billion to $90.95 billion.
The benefits are showing up first in contracts. Paid Copilot seats have topped 30 million, and commercial remaining performance obligations stand at $678 billion. But the weighted average term is only 2.3 years, with just about 30% expected to be recognized over the next 12 months.
Signed contracts aren’t revenue; timing is what matters. Pay closer attention to the accounting: starting in FY2027, the useful life used to depreciate data centers will increase from 15 years to 25 years. Some leases will be reclassified from finance leases to operating leases, bringing calendar 2026 capex down from about $190 billion to $175 billion. Spending this quarter is still over $50 billion. The money is still being spent; it just looks less painful on the books.
I’m not going to guess which way the stock will move ahead of earnings. If Azure growth slips to the lower end of the 44% range while capex remains above $50 billion, AI costs will show up in the income statement first. The payoff will only be realized if growth comes in above 45% and cloud gross margins stop falling. Morgan Stanley expects gross margin to decline by another 2 percentage points this year, to 65.8%.
#微软财报能否兑现AI红利 #BStocks #股票财报季