The price of $XRP is hovering around 1.3313–1.3314 USDT, up nearly 2.5% over 24 hours. The day's high is 1.3443 and the low is 1.2905, with a trading volume of around 500 million USDT. The market is showing conflicting signals, so it's worth distinguishing sentiment from technical analysis.
Mixed sentiment
At the end of October 2026, sentiment is mixed, ranging from neutral to cautious. The fear and greed indices disagree: depending on the source, they indicate fear (33), neutral (43–57), or greed (63). The quarterly average is neutral, at around 43.
Most notably, large holders are accumulating. Wallets holding 10 million $XRP or more control about 46.87 billion tokens, nearly 68.5% of the tracked supply—the highest level since November 2022.
The news is supportive: the OCC has given final approval to Ripple’s National Trust Bank, which is intended to manage RLUSD reserves and custody. In addition, the Swell conference takes place from October 27 to 29, and tokenized funds such as Aviva’s are already operating on XRPL. Spot ETFs continue to hold significant positions, although their flows have moderated.
Even so, the price is still about 15% below where it was a month ago and has not reacted strongly to the positive news. Social and retail trading volumes are low, its correlation with Bitcoin is strong, and open interest in derivatives has fallen at times. Several analysts maintain a bearish weekly outlook based on the moving-average structure.
What the charts say
On the higher time frame, the price is recovering from the 1.2535 low and contending with the EMA(99) at 1.3335, still below the EMA(25) at 1.3506. The RSI(6) is at 55.27, in neutral territory, and volume is declining. The recovery is real, but fragile.
On the 1-hour chart, the structure is clearly bullish: the price rose from 1.2905 to 1.3443 and is now pulling back to 1.3313. It remains above all three moving averages (EMA 7 at 1.3317, EMA 25 at 1.3200, and EMA 99 at 1.3076), with an RSI of 56.13 and higher volume on green candles.
On the lower time frame, the move from 1.26 to 1.3443 was strong, but the RSI(6) reached 70.85, in overbought territory. This suggests a possible consolidation or minor correction before the price continues higher.
Key levels
Resistance: 1.3443–1.35, combining the recent high with the EMA(25) zone.
Current pivot: 1.33–1.332, where the price and EMA(99) converge.
Near-term support: 1.31–1.32, marked by the shorter-term moving averages.
Strong support: 1.29–1.30, the 24-hour low and an important daily pivot.
Major support: 1.25–1.26, the October low.
Three scenarios
The bullish scenario, the most likely in the short term if support holds, requires the price to stay above 1.30–1.31 and break through 1.34–1.35 on volume. Targets would be 1.38–1.40, followed by 1.45 or higher.
The neutral scenario involves a range between 1.29 and 1.34 while the market digests overbought conditions and awaits the Fed’s decision and the close of Swell.
The bearish scenario would unfold if 1.29–1.30 is decisively lost, opening the way toward 1.25 and potentially 1.20. For now, low volume and the moving-average structure on higher time frames do not confirm a strong trend reversal.
Conclusion
$XRP is undergoing a short-term technical recovery within a broader consolidation. Whale accumulation and Ripple’s regulatory progress provide a constructive backdrop, but overbought RSI readings on lower time frames and resistance from longer-term moving averages limit the immediate upside. The two things to watch are volume on a potential break above 1.34–1.35 and the price reaction at 1.30.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile; do your own research and trade only with capital you can afford to lose.