📊 Gold is down 27%, but ETF holdings have hit a new all-time high
Gold surged to $5,586 on January 29 and closed at $4,074.6 last night, based on futures prices. Down 27%.
Silver has fallen even harder. It peaked at 121.3 on January 29; last night it was at 54.29. The gold-silver ratio has risen from just over 60 to 75.
Last week, gold fell below $4,000. It was down 4.1% for the week.
Holdings are rising. The World Gold Council’s October 7 report put it plainly: global gold ETFs saw net inflows of $10 billion in September, and $31 billion in the third quarter—a record. Holdings grew by 67 tonnes to 4,256 tonnes, also a record. Total assets under management shrank 7% that month, to $574 billion.
Prices are falling. ETF shares are being accumulated.
Those two figures seem to clash, but they don’t. Futures are where gold’s marginal price is set, and leveraged traders are watching real yields. The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.993% last night, the dollar index was at 102.32, and the benchmark rate is still stuck at 3.75% to 4.00%. The odds of another hike in December are about 80%, already priced in. As these move higher, so does the cost of holding gold. Futures traders are always the first to pull back.
ETF investors aren’t looking at next week; they’re looking at next year. In Reuters’ quarterly survey, analysts cut their 2026 gold-price forecasts for the second quarter in a row. Their reasons were clear: high yields, a strong dollar, and interest rates staying higher for longer. They still expect a rebound in 2027.
Two groups of investors, doing two different things with the same metal.
Tonight’s outcome is no surprise. By 2 a.m. Beijing time tomorrow, a 90% chance of holding steady is already priced in. What’s worth watching is the wording in two places: how the statement describes inflation, and Thursday’s core PCE data. If October’s pause is just a pause, real yields will have another step higher to climb.
Crypto is facing the same test. BTC is around 81,200, with six quote sources showing 80,977 to 81,145, up 1.6% over 24 hours. It closed at 112,898 on this day last year, down 28% over the year. From 126,199 on October 6, 2025, it’s now down 36%.
Gold: +2% over the past year. BTC: -28%.
Neither has made money. But people holding these two assets behave very differently. Gold ETF money is allocated quarterly; even as prices fell in September, $10 billion still flowed in. BTC ETF shares see daily inflows and outflows, and change direction whenever the price moves.
My take: gold has been on a roller coaster this year and ended up back where it started. The real question isn’t how much it has fallen, but whether those 4,256 tonnes can be held onto. The day ETFs switch from buyers to sellers, $4,000 will be nothing more than a psychological support level.
$BTC $ETH
#中本聪国际社区Baoluo币商资本 #宏观经济 #GoldETF
Gold surged to $5,586 on January 29 and closed at $4,074.6 last night, based on futures prices. Down 27%.
Silver has fallen even harder. It peaked at 121.3 on January 29; last night it was at 54.29. The gold-silver ratio has risen from just over 60 to 75.
Last week, gold fell below $4,000. It was down 4.1% for the week.
Holdings are rising. The World Gold Council’s October 7 report put it plainly: global gold ETFs saw net inflows of $10 billion in September, and $31 billion in the third quarter—a record. Holdings grew by 67 tonnes to 4,256 tonnes, also a record. Total assets under management shrank 7% that month, to $574 billion.
Prices are falling. ETF shares are being accumulated.
Those two figures seem to clash, but they don’t. Futures are where gold’s marginal price is set, and leveraged traders are watching real yields. The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.993% last night, the dollar index was at 102.32, and the benchmark rate is still stuck at 3.75% to 4.00%. The odds of another hike in December are about 80%, already priced in. As these move higher, so does the cost of holding gold. Futures traders are always the first to pull back.
ETF investors aren’t looking at next week; they’re looking at next year. In Reuters’ quarterly survey, analysts cut their 2026 gold-price forecasts for the second quarter in a row. Their reasons were clear: high yields, a strong dollar, and interest rates staying higher for longer. They still expect a rebound in 2027.
Two groups of investors, doing two different things with the same metal.
Tonight’s outcome is no surprise. By 2 a.m. Beijing time tomorrow, a 90% chance of holding steady is already priced in. What’s worth watching is the wording in two places: how the statement describes inflation, and Thursday’s core PCE data. If October’s pause is just a pause, real yields will have another step higher to climb.
Crypto is facing the same test. BTC is around 81,200, with six quote sources showing 80,977 to 81,145, up 1.6% over 24 hours. It closed at 112,898 on this day last year, down 28% over the year. From 126,199 on October 6, 2025, it’s now down 36%.
Gold: +2% over the past year. BTC: -28%.
Neither has made money. But people holding these two assets behave very differently. Gold ETF money is allocated quarterly; even as prices fell in September, $10 billion still flowed in. BTC ETF shares see daily inflows and outflows, and change direction whenever the price moves.
My take: gold has been on a roller coaster this year and ended up back where it started. The real question isn’t how much it has fallen, but whether those 4,256 tonnes can be held onto. The day ETFs switch from buyers to sellers, $4,000 will be nothing more than a psychological support level.
$BTC $ETH
#中本聪国际社区Baoluo币商资本 #宏观经济 #GoldETF
