$UNITREE Unitree Robotics broke 700 today, and many people are asking whether it’s heading to 995?
My view remains unchanged: I’m bearish.
995 is JPMorgan’s target price for December 2027, not today’s price. Today’s 9.4% rise looks more like a sentiment-driven spike than a reflection of improving fundamentals.
The main reasons are:
1. Valuation has drifted far from fundamentals. The P/E ratio is 465.22, while the industry average is only 38.54. The company itself has also warned about the risk of valuation reverting to the mean. The stock rose from 405.10 yuan to 672 yuan in just 7 trading days, and broke 700 today. That kind of steep climb isn’t a normal trend.
2. The interim results weren’t that strong. Revenue grew 48.54% year over year, but net profit excluding non-recurring items fell 19.34%. The core business’s earnings power hasn’t caught up with the valuation.
3. Commercialization is still a long way off. The company itself says humanoid robots are still at an early stage, with uncertainties around technology, demand, and the supply chain. Several hurdles remain before large-scale deployment.
4. The assumptions behind 995 haven’t materialized yet. Sales of 31,701 units in 2027 and 111,554 units in 2028 are assumptions. The 2026 sales estimate hasn’t been raised at all; it remains at 14,163 units. Breaking 700 today means pricing in sales from two years down the road ahead of time.
5. The shareholding structure is fragile. Only 7.4% of the shares are in free float, so even a small amount of money can push the price up or down. It rose 9.4% today, but could just as easily fall back by the same amount tomorrow.
6. Sentiment is at its peak. The funding rate once hit -1.12%, and 104 was a short-term peak. With the third-quarter report and the Fed decision due tomorrow, expectations are fully priced in, making a reversal more likely.
In short: I’m not bearish on the sector; I’m bearish on the current price. The price has run ahead of earnings and delivery, and sooner or later it will have to return to the mean.
#宇树科技 #Unitree
My view remains unchanged: I’m bearish.
995 is JPMorgan’s target price for December 2027, not today’s price. Today’s 9.4% rise looks more like a sentiment-driven spike than a reflection of improving fundamentals.
The main reasons are:
1. Valuation has drifted far from fundamentals. The P/E ratio is 465.22, while the industry average is only 38.54. The company itself has also warned about the risk of valuation reverting to the mean. The stock rose from 405.10 yuan to 672 yuan in just 7 trading days, and broke 700 today. That kind of steep climb isn’t a normal trend.
2. The interim results weren’t that strong. Revenue grew 48.54% year over year, but net profit excluding non-recurring items fell 19.34%. The core business’s earnings power hasn’t caught up with the valuation.
3. Commercialization is still a long way off. The company itself says humanoid robots are still at an early stage, with uncertainties around technology, demand, and the supply chain. Several hurdles remain before large-scale deployment.
4. The assumptions behind 995 haven’t materialized yet. Sales of 31,701 units in 2027 and 111,554 units in 2028 are assumptions. The 2026 sales estimate hasn’t been raised at all; it remains at 14,163 units. Breaking 700 today means pricing in sales from two years down the road ahead of time.
5. The shareholding structure is fragile. Only 7.4% of the shares are in free float, so even a small amount of money can push the price up or down. It rose 9.4% today, but could just as easily fall back by the same amount tomorrow.
6. Sentiment is at its peak. The funding rate once hit -1.12%, and 104 was a short-term peak. With the third-quarter report and the Fed decision due tomorrow, expectations are fully priced in, making a reversal more likely.
In short: I’m not bearish on the sector; I’m bearish on the current price. The price has run ahead of earnings and delivery, and sooner or later it will have to return to the mean.
#宇树科技 #Unitree
诱多，明天财报见光死
先回吐，等三季报再说
还能冲一波再跌
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