$EVAA Over the past 24 hours, the contract has risen about 78%, climbing from a low of 0.51 to a high of 1.166, with roughly $195 million in trading volume. During the hour of the spike, it plunged from 1.166 to 0.758, giving back nearly 35% in a single candle. The price looks like it’s already been through a round of flushing, but positioning just doesn’t line up with the idea that “it’s all over.”
Open interest peaked at around 11.91 million tokens at 8 o’clock, almost double the roughly 6.5 million-token base from yesterday afternoon. After the crash, it’s still around 11.19 million, down just 6%. When traders are forced to close positions, the price tends to move further in the direction that hurts them—the move here looks more like some of the longs from the spike were liquidated, while the leveraged positions themselves have barely been unwound. Retail long accounts fell from nearly 80% before the rally to around 55% at the spike, and are now at 56%; that round of short-side fuel has already burned. Large traders’ long positions are still around 59%. The funding rate touched about 0.08% in the early morning, so longs are still paying shorts. The 7 a.m. Beijing-time hourly candle opened at 0.928, hit 1.166, and closed at 1.126. The next candle plunged straight to a low of 0.758 and closed at 0.885. Hourly trading volume was roughly $26 million and $37 million, respectively—the real break came across those two candles.
Technically, the 1-hour RSI has fallen from 92 near the spike to around 61, and the KDJ J-line has dropped from 94 to 24. The MACD histogram is still positive, EMA12 is at 0.870, and ATR is around 11%. Price is stuck above the moving average, within the spike’s retracement range. This is neither a new base nor a fully flushed-out bottom; it looks more like an unfinished deleveraging move that has stalled halfway through.
I’m treating the move up to 1.166 as a short-squeeze spike and won’t add to my position. Until open interest falls back below 10 million tokens and long accounts drop below 50% again, I’ll watch the moving average at 0.870 on any rebound; if it breaks, the next level to watch is 0.76. If price gets back above 1.00 while open interest keeps building toward 12 million tokens, that would mean the longs from the spike haven’t been fully unwound, and volatility will only get higher. I have no position in this move on EVAA. These are my personal views.
$EVAA #合约 #Open Interest
Open interest peaked at around 11.91 million tokens at 8 o’clock, almost double the roughly 6.5 million-token base from yesterday afternoon. After the crash, it’s still around 11.19 million, down just 6%. When traders are forced to close positions, the price tends to move further in the direction that hurts them—the move here looks more like some of the longs from the spike were liquidated, while the leveraged positions themselves have barely been unwound. Retail long accounts fell from nearly 80% before the rally to around 55% at the spike, and are now at 56%; that round of short-side fuel has already burned. Large traders’ long positions are still around 59%. The funding rate touched about 0.08% in the early morning, so longs are still paying shorts. The 7 a.m. Beijing-time hourly candle opened at 0.928, hit 1.166, and closed at 1.126. The next candle plunged straight to a low of 0.758 and closed at 0.885. Hourly trading volume was roughly $26 million and $37 million, respectively—the real break came across those two candles.
Technically, the 1-hour RSI has fallen from 92 near the spike to around 61, and the KDJ J-line has dropped from 94 to 24. The MACD histogram is still positive, EMA12 is at 0.870, and ATR is around 11%. Price is stuck above the moving average, within the spike’s retracement range. This is neither a new base nor a fully flushed-out bottom; it looks more like an unfinished deleveraging move that has stalled halfway through.
I’m treating the move up to 1.166 as a short-squeeze spike and won’t add to my position. Until open interest falls back below 10 million tokens and long accounts drop below 50% again, I’ll watch the moving average at 0.870 on any rebound; if it breaks, the next level to watch is 0.76. If price gets back above 1.00 while open interest keeps building toward 12 million tokens, that would mean the longs from the spike haven’t been fully unwound, and volatility will only get higher. I have no position in this move on EVAA. These are my personal views.
$EVAA #合约 #Open Interest
