$AIN Over the past 24 hours, the contract surged from a low of 0.064 to 0.170, up about 125%, with roughly $740 million in trading volume, putting it firmly at the top of Binance’s contract gainers. A move that more than doubles is easy to read as retail traders piling into longs across the board, with sentiment already overheated.
But the account structure is moving in exactly the opposite direction. Around noon yesterday, long accounts were still near 50%; by 9 a.m. today, they had fallen to about 21.5%—meaning nearly 80% of accounts were short. Large traders’ long positions stayed around 60%, barely moving. When traders are forced to close positions, the price can move further in the direction that hurts them. Short accounts kept increasing as the price rose, adding fuel for a short squeeze—not confirming a top driven by a rush of longs. Open interest tells the same story: near last night’s 11 p.m. spike, it was about 376 million coins; by 2 a.m., it had been cleared down to around 323 million, a drop of more than 50 million. It then built back up to about 336 million. During the 9 a.m. hour this morning, the price plunged from 0.164 to 0.143, while open interest rose instead of falling. That suggests shorts were adding positions during the sell-off, rather than longs actively deleveraging. The funding rate was still positive at about 0.07% this morning, so longs were still paying shorts.
Yesterday at noon, I wrote that 0.070 wasn’t a new floor, and that unless open interest fell back below 300 million coins, the price would remain a temporary stop. It never did fall back below that level; instead, it went straight to 0.170. Short accounts have continued to pile in while large traders haven’t exited their longs. The structure is the same as yesterday at noon, just more extreme: the more the price rises, the more willing retail traders are to short, replenishing the fuel for a squeeze. Technically: 1-hour RSI is around 65, KDJ J is around 62, the upper Bollinger Band is 0.174, the upper Keltner Channel is 0.165, EMA12 is at 0.150, and ATR is about 11%. I see 0.170 as a sentiment spike, not a new base. Until retail long accounts climb back above 40% and open interest drops clearly below 320 million coins, the first pullback target is the moving average at 0.150; if it can’t hold, this is still just a temporary stop. I’m not holding a position in AIN.
$AIN #合约 #Open Interest
But the account structure is moving in exactly the opposite direction. Around noon yesterday, long accounts were still near 50%; by 9 a.m. today, they had fallen to about 21.5%—meaning nearly 80% of accounts were short. Large traders’ long positions stayed around 60%, barely moving. When traders are forced to close positions, the price can move further in the direction that hurts them. Short accounts kept increasing as the price rose, adding fuel for a short squeeze—not confirming a top driven by a rush of longs. Open interest tells the same story: near last night’s 11 p.m. spike, it was about 376 million coins; by 2 a.m., it had been cleared down to around 323 million, a drop of more than 50 million. It then built back up to about 336 million. During the 9 a.m. hour this morning, the price plunged from 0.164 to 0.143, while open interest rose instead of falling. That suggests shorts were adding positions during the sell-off, rather than longs actively deleveraging. The funding rate was still positive at about 0.07% this morning, so longs were still paying shorts.
Yesterday at noon, I wrote that 0.070 wasn’t a new floor, and that unless open interest fell back below 300 million coins, the price would remain a temporary stop. It never did fall back below that level; instead, it went straight to 0.170. Short accounts have continued to pile in while large traders haven’t exited their longs. The structure is the same as yesterday at noon, just more extreme: the more the price rises, the more willing retail traders are to short, replenishing the fuel for a squeeze. Technically: 1-hour RSI is around 65, KDJ J is around 62, the upper Bollinger Band is 0.174, the upper Keltner Channel is 0.165, EMA12 is at 0.150, and ATR is about 11%. I see 0.170 as a sentiment spike, not a new base. Until retail long accounts climb back above 40% and open interest drops clearly below 320 million coins, the first pullback target is the moving average at 0.150; if it can’t hold, this is still just a temporary stop. I’m not holding a position in AIN.
$AIN #合约 #Open Interest
