Oct 28 $BTC Market Analysis
✊ News:
Fed decision approaching: Markets price in about a 90% probability that rates will remain unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% on Oct 28, with only about a 10% chance of a rate hike. However, persistent inflation has raised concerns that the Fed may strike a hawkish tone, weighing on risk assets.
Strategy pauses BTC purchases: No buying or selling last week; holdings remain at around 848,517 BTC, with an average cost of about $75,446. The market interprets this as a short-term sign of caution.
Other developments: Strive added 6,182 BTC, and some whales withdrew coins from exchanges, but overall sentiment remains cautious. Galaxy Research believes the market has entered an accumulation range, while Glassnode data shows some whales have turned net short on Hyperliquid.
✊ Fund flows:
Spot ETFs: There were net inflows of around $109–110 million on Oct 26–27, reversing the roughly $770 million in outflows over the previous two days. However, October as a whole still shows net outflows, and the 7-day rolling figure is also negative.
Leveraged liquidations: Long liquidations increased after the price fell below $80,000, intensifying short-term selling pressure.
On-chain: Retail transfers to exchanges have increased, while large holders remain relatively restrained.
✊ Technical analysis:
You can look back at yesterday’s analysis, where I said there could be a rebound on the one-hour timeframe, with 81,400 as the level to watch for whether the price could hold. Yesterday, the price reached that level and then pulled back. My intraday outlook remains unchanged. The Fed’s rate decision is getting closer, and volatility is likely to increase, so the short-term direction is still unclear. I stand by my view: as long as the price cannot hold above 81,400, there is still room to move lower from here.
Support: 79,800–78,000
Resistance: 81,400–82,000
$BTC
✊ News:
Fed decision approaching: Markets price in about a 90% probability that rates will remain unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% on Oct 28, with only about a 10% chance of a rate hike. However, persistent inflation has raised concerns that the Fed may strike a hawkish tone, weighing on risk assets.
Strategy pauses BTC purchases: No buying or selling last week; holdings remain at around 848,517 BTC, with an average cost of about $75,446. The market interprets this as a short-term sign of caution.
Other developments: Strive added 6,182 BTC, and some whales withdrew coins from exchanges, but overall sentiment remains cautious. Galaxy Research believes the market has entered an accumulation range, while Glassnode data shows some whales have turned net short on Hyperliquid.
✊ Fund flows:
Spot ETFs: There were net inflows of around $109–110 million on Oct 26–27, reversing the roughly $770 million in outflows over the previous two days. However, October as a whole still shows net outflows, and the 7-day rolling figure is also negative.
Leveraged liquidations: Long liquidations increased after the price fell below $80,000, intensifying short-term selling pressure.
On-chain: Retail transfers to exchanges have increased, while large holders remain relatively restrained.
✊ Technical analysis:
You can look back at yesterday’s analysis, where I said there could be a rebound on the one-hour timeframe, with 81,400 as the level to watch for whether the price could hold. Yesterday, the price reached that level and then pulled back. My intraday outlook remains unchanged. The Fed’s rate decision is getting closer, and volatility is likely to increase, so the short-term direction is still unclear. I stand by my view: as long as the price cannot hold above 81,400, there is still room to move lower from here.
Support: 79,800–78,000
Resistance: 81,400–82,000
$BTC
