Three hourly closes above 80845 overnight, then it fell back this morning—is this a breakout?
The short answer: By the criteria we set last night, yes, it broke out. But this morning’s dip has put the “holding above” part back in question.
From last night into the early hours, $BTC moved like this: the 05:00 close was 80913, the 06:00 close was 80906, and the 07:00 close was 80910. Three consecutive hourly closes above 80845. That was the line set in last night’s post: a close above 80845 would count as a breakout, and those three overnight closes delivered. But during the 08:00 hour this morning, the price fell back to around 80700, below that line. The candle hasn’t closed yet, so it’s too early to say whether the level has broken or is holding.
Cross-checked against two sources at 08:52 this morning: Binance spot was 80765 and OKX perpetual was 80737, a 0.035% difference. Over 24 hours, it was up 0.66%, with a high of 81300 and a low of 79506. $ETH was also relatively quiet: Binance was 2346.55 and OKX was 2345.80, a 0.032% difference. It was up 0.77% over 24 hours, with a high of 2364 and a low of 2297. OKX funding rates were around 0.01% for BTC and 0.009% for ETH, both close to zero, with no signs of overcrowding on either side. Open interest was about 31,073 BTC and 638,254 ETH. There are no reliable liquidation figures for this period that use a consistent methodology, so I’m not citing any.
U.S. stocks actually did well overnight: the S&P 500 rose 0.60% to 7723, the Nasdaq rose 1.18% to 26478, and chip stocks gained 3.6%. But that doesn’t mean crypto will necessarily follow suit today; crypto is still trading around its own key levels.
My view in one sentence: breaking out doesn’t mean holding above the level. The 08:00 candle’s 09:00 close is the test: a close back above 80845 confirms the breakout; a close between 80000 and 80845 weakens the breakout and means more chop; a drop back below 80000 means those three overnight closes should be treated as a brief breach. So I’m not chasing this morning’s dip—I’ll wait for the 09:00 close.
There’s also a major event tonight: the Fed decision will be announced at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on October 29. The market broadly expects rates to remain unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%; the focus will be on what the Fed says about a possible December rate hike.
Risk warning: This is just my personal market commentary, not investment advice. Key levels can also see false breakouts.
Do you think the 09:00 close will get back above 80845, or will it keep chopping between 80000 and 80845?
#比特币 #美联储 #FOMC
The short answer: By the criteria we set last night, yes, it broke out. But this morning’s dip has put the “holding above” part back in question.
From last night into the early hours, $BTC moved like this: the 05:00 close was 80913, the 06:00 close was 80906, and the 07:00 close was 80910. Three consecutive hourly closes above 80845. That was the line set in last night’s post: a close above 80845 would count as a breakout, and those three overnight closes delivered. But during the 08:00 hour this morning, the price fell back to around 80700, below that line. The candle hasn’t closed yet, so it’s too early to say whether the level has broken or is holding.
Cross-checked against two sources at 08:52 this morning: Binance spot was 80765 and OKX perpetual was 80737, a 0.035% difference. Over 24 hours, it was up 0.66%, with a high of 81300 and a low of 79506. $ETH was also relatively quiet: Binance was 2346.55 and OKX was 2345.80, a 0.032% difference. It was up 0.77% over 24 hours, with a high of 2364 and a low of 2297. OKX funding rates were around 0.01% for BTC and 0.009% for ETH, both close to zero, with no signs of overcrowding on either side. Open interest was about 31,073 BTC and 638,254 ETH. There are no reliable liquidation figures for this period that use a consistent methodology, so I’m not citing any.
U.S. stocks actually did well overnight: the S&P 500 rose 0.60% to 7723, the Nasdaq rose 1.18% to 26478, and chip stocks gained 3.6%. But that doesn’t mean crypto will necessarily follow suit today; crypto is still trading around its own key levels.
My view in one sentence: breaking out doesn’t mean holding above the level. The 08:00 candle’s 09:00 close is the test: a close back above 80845 confirms the breakout; a close between 80000 and 80845 weakens the breakout and means more chop; a drop back below 80000 means those three overnight closes should be treated as a brief breach. So I’m not chasing this morning’s dip—I’ll wait for the 09:00 close.
There’s also a major event tonight: the Fed decision will be announced at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on October 29. The market broadly expects rates to remain unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%; the focus will be on what the Fed says about a possible December rate hike.
Risk warning: This is just my personal market commentary, not investment advice. Key levels can also see false breakouts.
Do you think the 09:00 close will get back above 80845, or will it keep chopping between 80000 and 80845?
#比特币 #美联储 #FOMC
