$HOOD U.S. stocks closed up about 1.9%, still near 94.5. After the quarterly results came out after hours, Binance futures plunged from around 94.8 to 87.6, giving back about 7%. They were down about 6.7% over 24 hours, with roughly $65 million in trading volume and an intraday low of 86.9. Revenue was $1.42 billion, still up 12% year over year but slightly below Wall Street’s expectations of around $1.43–$1.44 billion. Crypto trading revenue was slashed 55% to $120 million, while prediction market revenue came in at around $173 million, several times higher. On the surface, the disappointing results triggered a flush-out.
But the positioning data doesn’t support the idea that the market has been “cleaned out.” Around 1 a.m. Beijing time, open interest first fell from about 136,000 contracts to 130,000, suggesting a wave of liquidations. Yet in the hours when price kept sliding to a new low of 86.9, open interest rebounded from 130,000 to 141,000 contracts. The share of retail accounts holding longs climbed from around 64% to 68%, while large traders’ long positions rose from 63% to around 66%. Funding rates also remained slightly positive, near zero. When traders are forced to close positions, price tends to move further in the direction that hurts them. This latest leg down looks more like traders buying the dip and adding longs at new lows—not short fuel running out. Long accounts kept increasing as the price fell, so if there’s even a modest rebound, these leveraged longs will be the first under pressure.
Technically, price is hugging the lower boundary: the 1-hour RSI is around 23, the KDJ J-line is at -13, and the Bollinger lower band at 86.92 is almost right at the current price. The Keltner lower band, around 90, has been breached; EMA12 is at 91.2, and ATR is about 1.8%. Before the close, price had been grinding between 94 and 96; the real move came in two big red candles between 4 and 5 a.m. I’m not treating 86.9 as a floor. Until open interest falls back below 132,000 contracts and the share of retail long accounts drops below 60% again, any rebound first faces the Keltner lower band around 90. If price can’t hold above it, that’s still just a passing price level. The invalidation condition is also clear: if price gets back above the 91.2 moving average while open interest continues to expand, it means the dip-buyers haven’t cleared out, and volatility will only get worse. I have no position in this move in HOOD.
$HOOD #美股 #Earnings
But the positioning data doesn’t support the idea that the market has been “cleaned out.” Around 1 a.m. Beijing time, open interest first fell from about 136,000 contracts to 130,000, suggesting a wave of liquidations. Yet in the hours when price kept sliding to a new low of 86.9, open interest rebounded from 130,000 to 141,000 contracts. The share of retail accounts holding longs climbed from around 64% to 68%, while large traders’ long positions rose from 63% to around 66%. Funding rates also remained slightly positive, near zero. When traders are forced to close positions, price tends to move further in the direction that hurts them. This latest leg down looks more like traders buying the dip and adding longs at new lows—not short fuel running out. Long accounts kept increasing as the price fell, so if there’s even a modest rebound, these leveraged longs will be the first under pressure.
Technically, price is hugging the lower boundary: the 1-hour RSI is around 23, the KDJ J-line is at -13, and the Bollinger lower band at 86.92 is almost right at the current price. The Keltner lower band, around 90, has been breached; EMA12 is at 91.2, and ATR is about 1.8%. Before the close, price had been grinding between 94 and 96; the real move came in two big red candles between 4 and 5 a.m. I’m not treating 86.9 as a floor. Until open interest falls back below 132,000 contracts and the share of retail long accounts drops below 60% again, any rebound first faces the Keltner lower band around 90. If price can’t hold above it, that’s still just a passing price level. The invalidation condition is also clear: if price gets back above the 91.2 moving average while open interest continues to expand, it means the dip-buyers haven’t cleared out, and volatility will only get worse. I have no position in this move in HOOD.
$HOOD #美股 #Earnings
