Guys, with the Fed’s policy meeting this week, what we really need to watch isn’t whether it raises rates, but whether it suddenly changes course in December
The market is focused on October’s rate decision, but I’m paying more attention to three things that come next
1. No rate hike in October doesn’t mean we’re in the clear
Even if the Fed holds rates steady this time, that doesn’t necessarily signal good news. Officials still disagree on inflation and the path of interest rates. If the statement and press conference keep emphasizing inflation risks, the market will have to reassess the likelihood of a December rate hike.
2. GDP and PCE are the real tests
If the U.S. economy continues to grow strongly while inflation refuses to come down, the Fed will have no reason to rush into cutting rates—and might even reconsider raising them. A resilient economy and stubborn prices are the combination markets find most painful.
3. Expectations for December will be key to what happens next
The market has already started pricing in the risk of a December rate hike. If those expectations continue to build, the dollar and Treasury yields could find support, putting greater pressure on risk assets like BTC and ETH. Gold may not be able to rise easily either.
My view is simple: don’t rush to treat no rate hike in October as good news.
What matters next is what the Fed says, and how the economic and inflation data develop. If expectations of a December rate hike keep rising, be careful with this crypto market rebound. What really determines the market’s direction may not be whether rates change this time, but whether the market suddenly realizes that high rates will have to stay in place for longer.
#FOMC会议 $BTC
The market is focused on October’s rate decision, but I’m paying more attention to three things that come next
1. No rate hike in October doesn’t mean we’re in the clear
Even if the Fed holds rates steady this time, that doesn’t necessarily signal good news. Officials still disagree on inflation and the path of interest rates. If the statement and press conference keep emphasizing inflation risks, the market will have to reassess the likelihood of a December rate hike.
2. GDP and PCE are the real tests
If the U.S. economy continues to grow strongly while inflation refuses to come down, the Fed will have no reason to rush into cutting rates—and might even reconsider raising them. A resilient economy and stubborn prices are the combination markets find most painful.
3. Expectations for December will be key to what happens next
The market has already started pricing in the risk of a December rate hike. If those expectations continue to build, the dollar and Treasury yields could find support, putting greater pressure on risk assets like BTC and ETH. Gold may not be able to rise easily either.
My view is simple: don’t rush to treat no rate hike in October as good news.
What matters next is what the Fed says, and how the economic and inflation data develop. If expectations of a December rate hike keep rising, be careful with this crypto market rebound. What really determines the market’s direction may not be whether rates change this time, but whether the market suddenly realizes that high rates will have to stay in place for longer.
#FOMC会议 $BTC
