$BULLA collapsed from the intraday high of 0.165 to 0.061, with the 24-hour perpetual contract down about 55% and trading volume around $310 million. When it crashes this hard, it usually means positions have already been washed out. But from 18:00 to 20:00, while price kept making new lows, open interest actually climbed back from 120 million contracts to 139 million contracts, an increase of nearly 19 million — meaning that the bottoming zone was not a forced liquidation phase, but a phase where new players were stepping in to take the other side.
The same period looks even more striking: the share of long accounts jumped from 34% at 13:00 to 65% at 19:00. Large-player long positioning stayed around 46% and barely moved, and funding at 20:00 only just printed -0.89%. The positions being built up were mainly retail dip-buying, while the major players' position structure did not flip long with it.
Looking a bit further back makes it even clearer. This morning, when price was still around 0.15, long accounts were only about 35%, with shorts dominating; overnight open interest piled up to about 149 million contracts, with a notional value of roughly $23 million. The waterfall started at 13:00, with a steady dump from 0.146. At 14:00, hourly trading volume was about $36 million, and price plunged from 0.130 through 0.091 before rebounding to 0.117; at 18:00 it broke down through 0.067, and at 19:00 it touched 0.061. Now the notional value is only about $9 million, but the number of contracts has almost climbed back to the highs. During the price halving process, retail went from short to long and even added on near the lows. Liquidations did not clear the book; they just replaced one group of holders with another. If it dumps again next time, this group of 65% long accounts will be the first to get swept, and the orders forced out will themselves become fresh sell pressure.
Technically, everything is pinned near the lower boundary: 1-hour RSI is around 19, KDJ J is at -9, the Bollinger lower band at 0.068 has already been broken by about 8%, EMA12 is at 0.105, and ATR is roughly 24%. I do not treat 0.061 as a bottom. Until open interest falls back below 120 million contracts and long accounts drop under 45%, I would treat any rebound as short covering first. If price cannot reclaim the Bollinger lower band at 0.068, I would not add here myself. BULLA has no position in this stretch; first watch whether open interest and retail longs can truly cool off. Personal observation record.
$BULLA #合约数据 #positions
The same period looks even more striking: the share of long accounts jumped from 34% at 13:00 to 65% at 19:00. Large-player long positioning stayed around 46% and barely moved, and funding at 20:00 only just printed -0.89%. The positions being built up were mainly retail dip-buying, while the major players' position structure did not flip long with it.
Looking a bit further back makes it even clearer. This morning, when price was still around 0.15, long accounts were only about 35%, with shorts dominating; overnight open interest piled up to about 149 million contracts, with a notional value of roughly $23 million. The waterfall started at 13:00, with a steady dump from 0.146. At 14:00, hourly trading volume was about $36 million, and price plunged from 0.130 through 0.091 before rebounding to 0.117; at 18:00 it broke down through 0.067, and at 19:00 it touched 0.061. Now the notional value is only about $9 million, but the number of contracts has almost climbed back to the highs. During the price halving process, retail went from short to long and even added on near the lows. Liquidations did not clear the book; they just replaced one group of holders with another. If it dumps again next time, this group of 65% long accounts will be the first to get swept, and the orders forced out will themselves become fresh sell pressure.
Technically, everything is pinned near the lower boundary: 1-hour RSI is around 19, KDJ J is at -9, the Bollinger lower band at 0.068 has already been broken by about 8%, EMA12 is at 0.105, and ATR is roughly 24%. I do not treat 0.061 as a bottom. Until open interest falls back below 120 million contracts and long accounts drop under 45%, I would treat any rebound as short covering first. If price cannot reclaim the Bollinger lower band at 0.068, I would not add here myself. BULLA has no position in this stretch; first watch whether open interest and retail longs can truly cool off. Personal observation record.
$BULLA #合约数据 #positions
