October FOMC preview: Warsh’s press conference may follow September’s brief format, with no Q&A
October 27 — With the Fed’s policy meeting set to take place this week, some market observers expect Chair Warsh’s press conference to follow September’s brief format, lasting about 30 minutes and possibly featuring no Q&A.
Notably, the press conference Warsh hosted after the September 16 policy meeting lasted only about 30 minutes, setting a record as the shortest since the Fed began holding regular press conferences in 2011.
The outcome of the October 27–28 policy meeting will be announced at 2 a.m. Beijing time on October 29. Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 90% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady, with attention focused on Warsh’s remarks after the meeting.
Markets have outlined two possible scenarios for the meeting. If the Fed raises rates, Warsh would need only to stress that inflation remains broadly elevated, financial conditions are not yet restrictive enough, and the economy and labor market remain strong. His language should also avoid being overly hawkish, so as not to trigger a sharp tightening in financial conditions.
But if the Fed holds rates steady, Warsh would face a more difficult test of credibility. In light of strong September inflation data, even if Warsh argues that the focus should be on inflation trends rather than any single month’s data, markets may still question whether he is letting his guard down on inflation. After all, a similar assessment of trends previously paved the way for the September rate hike.
However, analysts also warned that if Warsh is unwilling to send a clear signal locking in expectations for a December rate hike, markets could see a steepening yield curve, a weaker dollar, and a simultaneous sell-off in risk assets.
As for the rate path, BofA stands by its previous view, expecting the Fed to raise rates in December 2026 and March 2027. Further hikes may also be possible if inflation proves stickier than expected in the first half of 2027.
#10月议息会议 #美联储发布会
October 27 — With the Fed’s policy meeting set to take place this week, some market observers expect Chair Warsh’s press conference to follow September’s brief format, lasting about 30 minutes and possibly featuring no Q&A.
Notably, the press conference Warsh hosted after the September 16 policy meeting lasted only about 30 minutes, setting a record as the shortest since the Fed began holding regular press conferences in 2011.
The outcome of the October 27–28 policy meeting will be announced at 2 a.m. Beijing time on October 29. Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 90% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady, with attention focused on Warsh’s remarks after the meeting.
Markets have outlined two possible scenarios for the meeting. If the Fed raises rates, Warsh would need only to stress that inflation remains broadly elevated, financial conditions are not yet restrictive enough, and the economy and labor market remain strong. His language should also avoid being overly hawkish, so as not to trigger a sharp tightening in financial conditions.
But if the Fed holds rates steady, Warsh would face a more difficult test of credibility. In light of strong September inflation data, even if Warsh argues that the focus should be on inflation trends rather than any single month’s data, markets may still question whether he is letting his guard down on inflation. After all, a similar assessment of trends previously paved the way for the September rate hike.
However, analysts also warned that if Warsh is unwilling to send a clear signal locking in expectations for a December rate hike, markets could see a steepening yield curve, a weaker dollar, and a simultaneous sell-off in risk assets.
As for the rate path, BofA stands by its previous view, expecting the Fed to raise rates in December 2026 and March 2027. Further hikes may also be possible if inflation proves stickier than expected in the first half of 2027.
#10月议息会议 #美联储发布会
