The calm before the storm
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老腊肉-kevin
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U.S. Market Analysis: Behind the AI Frenzy, Someone Is Quietly Picking Up the Tab
All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher overnight: the S&P 500 rose 0.70% to 7,676.77, the Nasdaq gained 0.82%, and the Dow added 0.28%. But don’t be fooled by the indexes—the Goldman Sachs AI Index surged 2.49%, while S&P 500 constituents excluding AI stocks rose just 0.02%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led the way, up 2.82%. Nvidia gained 2.40%, Micron rose 2.98%, and Lumentum jumped more than 8%. AI stocks did all the rising; everything else was just along for the ride.
How macro news affected different asset classes:
Anthropic officially filed for an IPO, reporting first-half revenue of $16.286 billion and turning a profit on an adjusted operating basis for the first time. Its GAAP net loss of $80.7 billion was mainly a paper loss from changes in the fair value of convertible bonds.
At the same time, Meta launched an equity financing of up to $95 billion. Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom are reportedly interested in subscribing for up to $5 billion.
Together, these two developments answer the question, “Who’s paying for AI capital spending?” The answer: investors are, through the stock market. On the Treasury front, the 10-year yield edged down to 4.98% as markets awaited the Fed’s decision. Markets currently price in a greater than 90% chance of no change in October, though expectations of a December rate hike remain.
Oil prices eased slightly, with WTI down about 1.5% to $101.76 and Brent down 0.8% to $115.81. The Middle East risk premium has not gone away.
The AI narrative is indeed reigniting, but the real signal is that Meta itself closed down 1.88%. The S&P 500 remains below its 50-day moving average, with 7,690–7,700 as the make-or-break level. If it can’t get above that range, the gamma structure will remain tilted negative.
The Fed on Thursday and earnings from three big tech companies this week are set to hit one after another. This low-volume rebound won’t take much to falter—a single weaker-than-expected outlook could do it. $SOXL $KORU $CL #Anthropic滚动12个月营收增长约1200%
All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher overnight: the S&P 500 rose 0.70% to 7,676.77, the Nasdaq gained 0.82%, and the Dow added 0.28%. But don’t be fooled by the indexes—the Goldman Sachs AI Index surged 2.49%, while S&P 500 constituents excluding AI stocks rose just 0.02%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led the way, up 2.82%. Nvidia gained 2.40%, Micron rose 2.98%, and Lumentum jumped more than 8%. AI stocks did all the rising; everything else was just along for the ride.
How macro news affected different asset classes:
Anthropic officially filed for an IPO, reporting first-half revenue of $16.286 billion and turning a profit on an adjusted operating basis for the first time. Its GAAP net loss of $80.7 billion was mainly a paper loss from changes in the fair value of convertible bonds.
At the same time, Meta launched an equity financing of up to $95 billion. Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom are reportedly interested in subscribing for up to $5 billion.
Together, these two developments answer the question, “Who’s paying for AI capital spending?” The answer: investors are, through the stock market. On the Treasury front, the 10-year yield edged down to 4.98% as markets awaited the Fed’s decision. Markets currently price in a greater than 90% chance of no change in October, though expectations of a December rate hike remain.
Oil prices eased slightly, with WTI down about 1.5% to $101.76 and Brent down 0.8% to $115.81. The Middle East risk premium has not gone away.
The AI narrative is indeed reigniting, but the real signal is that Meta itself closed down 1.88%. The S&P 500 remains below its 50-day moving average, with 7,690–7,700 as the make-or-break level. If it can’t get above that range, the gamma structure will remain tilted negative.
The Fed on Thursday and earnings from three big tech companies this week are set to hit one after another. This low-volume rebound won’t take much to falter—a single weaker-than-expected outlook could do it. $SOXL $KORU $CL #Anthropic滚动12个月营收增长约1200%
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