Lost $80.7 billion in six months, yet wants to sell at a $1.75 trillion valuation 🦖
On October 26, Anthropic publicly filed its S-1 registration statement, planning to list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are leading a group of 24 underwriters, with pricing targeted for mid-to-late November. The Financial Times, citing investor expectations, reported a valuation range of $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion.
First, let’s look at its numbers. Revenue in the first half of 2026 was $16.3 billion, compared with just $1.16 billion in the same period last year—a 14-fold increase in a year. On a trailing 12-month basis, revenue growth was about 1,200%. Full-year revenue was $4.59 billion in 2025, $386 million in 2024, and just $41 million in 2023. Going from $41 million to $16.3 billion in half a year over three years is an extraordinary growth curve in any industry 📈
The loss column is even more startling: a net loss of $80.7 billion in the first half, of which $72.4 billion came from fair-value changes in instruments such as convertible bonds. Put simply, its valuation rose so quickly that it had to book a large paper loss. The actual operating loss was $693 million. It also has $112.4 billion in cash and $19.3 billion in short-term investments on its balance sheet. That’s one reason it feels confident enough to go public now.
My take: this isn’t an ordinary IPO. It’s a massive drain on risk capital. What the crypto market lacks most right now isn’t a story, but new money—and this stock will likely siphon off some of the capital that might otherwise have flowed into high-volatility assets. Last night was a case in point: after the S-1 was announced, Nvidia rose 1.4% premarket, Broadcom gained 1.5%, and Micron climbed 2.3%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin was still stuck at $79,935, down 0.79% over 24 hours, and Ethereum was at $2,312, down 1.71%. One group is scrambling to get a ticket aboard the AI ship, while the other waits around for the Fed ⚖️
The on-chain action is even more interesting. A derivatives platform has already listed an ANTH contract. It surged to $1,980 the moment the S-1 was announced, then plunged back to $1,857 within minutes. Twenty-four-hour trading volume was just $12 million—suggesting that even the boldest bettors haven’t figured out what price to put on it.
My view: crypto will see capital drain away in the short term, but that doesn’t mean the bull market is over. The real turning point will be pricing day in mid-to-late November. If the $1.5 trillion valuation is snapped up, that will show the market is willing to pay for cash flows a decade from now, and that risk appetite is recovering. An asset like Bitcoin, which has no cash flow, could actually catch up during the next redistribution of liquidity. If the offering is met with a cold reception, that’s when the sell-off in all high-valuation assets could begin 👀
Do you think this money is temporarily leaving crypto, or has it really switched tracks? Let’s discuss in the comments.
Every day, I bring you the latest on AI and crypto capital flows—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
On October 26, Anthropic publicly filed its S-1 registration statement, planning to list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are leading a group of 24 underwriters, with pricing targeted for mid-to-late November. The Financial Times, citing investor expectations, reported a valuation range of $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion.
First, let’s look at its numbers. Revenue in the first half of 2026 was $16.3 billion, compared with just $1.16 billion in the same period last year—a 14-fold increase in a year. On a trailing 12-month basis, revenue growth was about 1,200%. Full-year revenue was $4.59 billion in 2025, $386 million in 2024, and just $41 million in 2023. Going from $41 million to $16.3 billion in half a year over three years is an extraordinary growth curve in any industry 📈
The loss column is even more startling: a net loss of $80.7 billion in the first half, of which $72.4 billion came from fair-value changes in instruments such as convertible bonds. Put simply, its valuation rose so quickly that it had to book a large paper loss. The actual operating loss was $693 million. It also has $112.4 billion in cash and $19.3 billion in short-term investments on its balance sheet. That’s one reason it feels confident enough to go public now.
My take: this isn’t an ordinary IPO. It’s a massive drain on risk capital. What the crypto market lacks most right now isn’t a story, but new money—and this stock will likely siphon off some of the capital that might otherwise have flowed into high-volatility assets. Last night was a case in point: after the S-1 was announced, Nvidia rose 1.4% premarket, Broadcom gained 1.5%, and Micron climbed 2.3%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin was still stuck at $79,935, down 0.79% over 24 hours, and Ethereum was at $2,312, down 1.71%. One group is scrambling to get a ticket aboard the AI ship, while the other waits around for the Fed ⚖️
The on-chain action is even more interesting. A derivatives platform has already listed an ANTH contract. It surged to $1,980 the moment the S-1 was announced, then plunged back to $1,857 within minutes. Twenty-four-hour trading volume was just $12 million—suggesting that even the boldest bettors haven’t figured out what price to put on it.
My view: crypto will see capital drain away in the short term, but that doesn’t mean the bull market is over. The real turning point will be pricing day in mid-to-late November. If the $1.5 trillion valuation is snapped up, that will show the market is willing to pay for cash flows a decade from now, and that risk appetite is recovering. An asset like Bitcoin, which has no cash flow, could actually catch up during the next redistribution of liquidity. If the offering is met with a cold reception, that’s when the sell-off in all high-valuation assets could begin 👀
Do you think this money is temporarily leaving crypto, or has it really switched tracks? Let’s discuss in the comments.
Every day, I bring you the latest on AI and crypto capital flows—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
