As of the close on 10-25, BTC was at 80,154.09, with EMA20 at 82,130.18. Price has now closed below the moving average for 4 consecutive candles (-2.41%). The conclusion first: the old three-step structure has been invalidated and exited, but the prerequisite for a new three-step structure—≥3 closes below EMA20—has now been met. The entire system is now in a “waiting only for the signal candle” state.
First, let’s settle the old account: the 10-20 signal candle (high 83,439 / low 81,200) was confirmed on 10-21, followed by a continued decline. The invalidation level of 81,200 was officially broken at the 10-24 close. From now on, the old confirmation level of 83,439 should be read only as overhead resistance, not used as a confirmation level.
Now let’s look at the new structure in two places:
Look up to 82,130.18—the current EMA20 level. The next step isn’t to confirm immediately; first, we need a new signal candle that “closes back above the EMA20.” That’s the first of three steps. Then we still need to wait for the following day’s close to break above that signal candle’s high for confirmation. So far, not even the first step has happened, and the fourth candle below the EMA20 does not constitute an entry signal.
Look down to 79,220.74—the 20-day low set on 10-24. Until a new signal candle appears, this is the only meaningful reference level below. A close below it would mean extending the wait to “get back above the moving average.”
The day’s main story, in a nutshell: This is a super data week, with rate decisions from the Fed, ECB, and BOJ coming one after another, and Coinbase’s earnings also on the calendar. Overnight, BTC fluctuated around the 80,000 level. Traders broadly reduced risk ahead of the decisions, while MicroStrategy stopped adding to its holdings and shifted to buying back its own preferred stock. The Fear & Greed Index is at 50—classic neutral, wait-and-see territory. Against this backdrop, price is grinding below the moving average on declining volume, which actually makes the structure cleaner: waiting for a signal is more sensible than chasing a rebound.
My approach in one sentence: We’ve accumulated enough candles below the EMA20 (four); now we’re just waiting for the signal candle that “first closes above the EMA20.” Until it appears, I’m watching but not entering. If 79,220 is taken out on a closing basis, I’ll restart the count. (At the time of writing, BTC was around 80,470 intraday on 10-26; unclosed data isn’t used as a basis for the structure.)
This content is only a personal record of my trading structure and does not constitute investment advice.
So here’s the question: Do you think this new signal candle will “close back above 82,130 before the Fed decision,” or will it “wait until after the decision”? Leave your take in the comments.
$BTC