A $68 million bet that Bitcoin will surge to $90,000 after the U.S. midterm elections 🦖
🚨 行情变了群里说
On October 20, a single wallet bought 800 call options with a $90,000 strike price on an on-chain options platform. They expire on November 6, exactly three days after the U.S. midterm elections end. Each contract represents one Bitcoin, putting the notional value at around $68 million at the time. It’s currently the platform’s largest single open Bitcoin position 💰
The key is how the position is structured. The wallet didn’t simply bet on prices going up: it also sold 400 call options with a $100,000 strike price expiring in March 2027, and another 400 calls with a $90,000 strike price expiring on October 30. After the premiums from those two sales are offset against the cost of the calls it bought, the position brings in around $940,000 net. In plain English, the proceeds from the two sales help finance the first trade. The bet is on a sharp rally in the days after the election—not a long-term bull run 🎯
The odds are shifting, too. On the platform, the implied probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 before Christmas has risen from 9.7% a week ago to 12%. Over the same period, the probability of it falling below $70,000 has dropped from 15.6% to 11%. One is up and the other is down—the market is noticeably more optimistic about year-end.
But the signals are pointing the other way elsewhere. Near-term skew on another established options exchange is still negative, meaning put options are more expensive than calls. Big investors are still paying for downside protection. One whale is betting on a rally, while the broader market is paying for insurance. That divergence is worth watching in its own right ⚠️
My take: the real takeaway from this news isn’t that Bitcoin is headed for $90,000. It’s that someone is treating the U.S. midterm elections as a catalyst. The November 6 expiry date is so precisely chosen that it suggests a bet on a shift in risk appetite triggered by a political event—not on-chain fundamentals. And don’t forget: the Fed’s decision is due this Wednesday, alongside a slew of tech earnings and PCE data. Any one of those factors could turn this position on its head.
$68 million sounds alarming, but this is an options trade, not a spot position. The maximum loss is the premium. If the bet is wrong, that money simply goes to zero; it won’t crash the spot market. The real concern is that if this kind of bet becomes consensus, volatility could get sucked out of the market ahead of time, making it easier for the news to turn into a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” event once it happens 📈
Do you think Bitcoin can touch $90,000 before November 6, or will it drop to $75,000 first? Let’s discuss in the comments.
Every day, I bring you the latest Bitcoin stories—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind the headlines 👀🚀
🚨 行情变了群里说
On October 20, a single wallet bought 800 call options with a $90,000 strike price on an on-chain options platform. They expire on November 6, exactly three days after the U.S. midterm elections end. Each contract represents one Bitcoin, putting the notional value at around $68 million at the time. It’s currently the platform’s largest single open Bitcoin position 💰
The key is how the position is structured. The wallet didn’t simply bet on prices going up: it also sold 400 call options with a $100,000 strike price expiring in March 2027, and another 400 calls with a $90,000 strike price expiring on October 30. After the premiums from those two sales are offset against the cost of the calls it bought, the position brings in around $940,000 net. In plain English, the proceeds from the two sales help finance the first trade. The bet is on a sharp rally in the days after the election—not a long-term bull run 🎯
The odds are shifting, too. On the platform, the implied probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 before Christmas has risen from 9.7% a week ago to 12%. Over the same period, the probability of it falling below $70,000 has dropped from 15.6% to 11%. One is up and the other is down—the market is noticeably more optimistic about year-end.
But the signals are pointing the other way elsewhere. Near-term skew on another established options exchange is still negative, meaning put options are more expensive than calls. Big investors are still paying for downside protection. One whale is betting on a rally, while the broader market is paying for insurance. That divergence is worth watching in its own right ⚠️
My take: the real takeaway from this news isn’t that Bitcoin is headed for $90,000. It’s that someone is treating the U.S. midterm elections as a catalyst. The November 6 expiry date is so precisely chosen that it suggests a bet on a shift in risk appetite triggered by a political event—not on-chain fundamentals. And don’t forget: the Fed’s decision is due this Wednesday, alongside a slew of tech earnings and PCE data. Any one of those factors could turn this position on its head.
$68 million sounds alarming, but this is an options trade, not a spot position. The maximum loss is the premium. If the bet is wrong, that money simply goes to zero; it won’t crash the spot market. The real concern is that if this kind of bet becomes consensus, volatility could get sucked out of the market ahead of time, making it easier for the news to turn into a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” event once it happens 📈
Do you think Bitcoin can touch $90,000 before November 6, or will it drop to $75,000 first? Let’s discuss in the comments.
Every day, I bring you the latest Bitcoin stories—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind the headlines 👀🚀
