Overnight, $TAG plunged from yesterday’s peak of 0.000709 to 0.000485, giving back about 31%, with roughly $37.7 million in contract volume. A 30% retracement would usually suggest the chasing buyers have been flushed out. But Binance futures open interest is still sitting at around 8.35 billion tokens. When the vertical rally started at 16:00 yesterday afternoon, it was around 7.89 billion; by 17:00, it had peaked at 9.66 billion. The price has fallen 30%, but the number of tokens in open interest is still higher than when the rally began, down only about 14% from the peak.
Who’s being forced to hold the bag? Retail accounts were about 73% long at yesterday’s peak, and are still stuck at 71% now, barely budging. Large traders’ long positions remain steady at around 54%. The mechanics are straightforward: the price fell, but positions weren’t closed. The longs who chased the vertical move yesterday are still in place, and any bounce will have to contend with that overhead supply first. The funding rate has stayed pinned at the -0.0005 floor since last night. For much of the day, the hourly taker buy/sell ratio has hovered between 0.6 and 0.7—selling pressure is coming through, but the number of tokens in open interest refuses to fall. The 15:00 hourly candle hit a low of 0.000475, setting a new low for the day, on about $8.7 million in hourly volume. Open interest only moved from 8.37 billion to 8.30 billion: it’s the dollar value that fell, not the positions. Mark price and index are almost exactly aligned, with no notable premium or discount to use as leverage. Yesterday evening I said that if the price didn’t add to the 0.000709 peak and open interest stayed above 7.2 billion, I’d keep watching—the call on the peak’s direction was right. As for the positions not being fully unwound, I’m still judging that by the same yardstick.
Technicals aren’t at an extreme: 1-hour RSI is around 45.5, the lower Bollinger Band at 0.000482 has just been touched, EMA12 at 0.000492 is overhead resistance, the MACD histogram is still negative, and ATR is around 3.8%. I don’t consider the low at 0.000475 to be today’s floor. Until price can reclaim the 0.000492 moving average on a bounce, I’m treating this as positions still being worked through. If open interest stays pinned above 8 billion and retail longs remain stuck around 70%, there’s still fuel for another leg down. I’m staying out of both sides of TAG here and will first watch to see whether those positions get unwound.
#TAG #合约持仓 #Cryptocurrency
Who’s being forced to hold the bag? Retail accounts were about 73% long at yesterday’s peak, and are still stuck at 71% now, barely budging. Large traders’ long positions remain steady at around 54%. The mechanics are straightforward: the price fell, but positions weren’t closed. The longs who chased the vertical move yesterday are still in place, and any bounce will have to contend with that overhead supply first. The funding rate has stayed pinned at the -0.0005 floor since last night. For much of the day, the hourly taker buy/sell ratio has hovered between 0.6 and 0.7—selling pressure is coming through, but the number of tokens in open interest refuses to fall. The 15:00 hourly candle hit a low of 0.000475, setting a new low for the day, on about $8.7 million in hourly volume. Open interest only moved from 8.37 billion to 8.30 billion: it’s the dollar value that fell, not the positions. Mark price and index are almost exactly aligned, with no notable premium or discount to use as leverage. Yesterday evening I said that if the price didn’t add to the 0.000709 peak and open interest stayed above 7.2 billion, I’d keep watching—the call on the peak’s direction was right. As for the positions not being fully unwound, I’m still judging that by the same yardstick.
Technicals aren’t at an extreme: 1-hour RSI is around 45.5, the lower Bollinger Band at 0.000482 has just been touched, EMA12 at 0.000492 is overhead resistance, the MACD histogram is still negative, and ATR is around 3.8%. I don’t consider the low at 0.000475 to be today’s floor. Until price can reclaim the 0.000492 moving average on a bounce, I’m treating this as positions still being worked through. If open interest stays pinned above 8 billion and retail longs remain stuck around 70%, there’s still fuel for another leg down. I’m staying out of both sides of TAG here and will first watch to see whether those positions get unwound.
#TAG #合约持仓 #Cryptocurrency
