$AAVE has fallen from 160 to 134 over the past few days. I’d like to look at it from the perspective of whether the protocol is actually making money.
Price: Kraken’s current price is around 134.2, with today’s open at 136.17 and low at 133.32. Over the past 7 days, 4-hour closes have ranged from about 134 to 159. It was around 150 a week ago, representing a cumulative decline of roughly 10%. The 30-day high was 187.6, so the current price is well below that peak.
On-chain data (DefiLlama):
1. Protocol TVL is around $17.58 billion, including about $12.16 billion in outstanding borrows, indicating that capital is still being actively used.
2. Protocol fees over the past 7 days were about $8.2 million, equivalent to roughly $430 million annualized; revenue attributable to the protocol was about $1.1 million, or around $57.5 million annualized.
3. Based on a circulating market cap of $2.07 billion, that’s about 4.8x annualized fees, but roughly 36x annualized protocol revenue. The conclusion varies considerably depending on which metric you use.
Catalysts: The first externally curated V4 markets, managed by Sentora, have launched on Ethereum. A market has also opened on Base where tokenized U.S. stocks can be used as collateral to borrow USDC. Risks: On-chain monitoring reports that an institution recently transferred about 35,000 AAVE to exchanges; the V3.8 upgrade and proposals to wind down low-utilization markets are still under governance review.
Key levels: On the downside, watch this morning’s low at 133.3. On the upside, the first level to watch is around 138.8, yesterday’s rebound high. A break below the previous low could weaken the short-term momentum.
Which do you value more: protocol fees, or revenue that actually accrues to the token?
#AAVE #DeFi #On-chain data
This is not investment advice. Please assess the risks for yourself.
Price: Kraken’s current price is around 134.2, with today’s open at 136.17 and low at 133.32. Over the past 7 days, 4-hour closes have ranged from about 134 to 159. It was around 150 a week ago, representing a cumulative decline of roughly 10%. The 30-day high was 187.6, so the current price is well below that peak.
On-chain data (DefiLlama):
1. Protocol TVL is around $17.58 billion, including about $12.16 billion in outstanding borrows, indicating that capital is still being actively used.
2. Protocol fees over the past 7 days were about $8.2 million, equivalent to roughly $430 million annualized; revenue attributable to the protocol was about $1.1 million, or around $57.5 million annualized.
3. Based on a circulating market cap of $2.07 billion, that’s about 4.8x annualized fees, but roughly 36x annualized protocol revenue. The conclusion varies considerably depending on which metric you use.
Catalysts: The first externally curated V4 markets, managed by Sentora, have launched on Ethereum. A market has also opened on Base where tokenized U.S. stocks can be used as collateral to borrow USDC. Risks: On-chain monitoring reports that an institution recently transferred about 35,000 AAVE to exchanges; the V3.8 upgrade and proposals to wind down low-utilization markets are still under governance review.
Key levels: On the downside, watch this morning’s low at 133.3. On the upside, the first level to watch is around 138.8, yesterday’s rebound high. A break below the previous low could weaken the short-term momentum.
Which do you value more: protocol fees, or revenue that actually accrues to the token?
#AAVE #DeFi #On-chain data
This is not investment advice. Please assess the risks for yourself.
