BlockBeats News, October 26: BTC is currently hovering around $80,000, with large-scale buying plans interspersed among long liquidation levels. In the derivatives market, an apparently thick “buy wall” could trigger a cascade of forced liquidations if a price drop breaches the long liquidation levels, instantly turning what were buy orders into forced sell orders.

To assess “where strong support may lie,” we analyzed the cost basis of nearly 200 whales holding long positions worth at least $1 million each in the Hyperliquid market. We examined 557 addresses that had previously held positions worth over $1 million, and modeled the interplay between preset buy orders, exit sell orders, and liquidation pressure from long positions.

Half of million-dollar-plus long positions are underwater

Across the market, 198 longs holding more than $1 million in BTC have a combined position of approximately $1.184 billion. Weighted by position size, their average entry price is around $79,495—a breakeven threshold for large longs across the market.

Additionally, the current price of $79,938 is just above the average cost basis. If the price falls below $79,000, half of these large long positions will move into loss, potentially triggering stop-loss selling and intensifying liquidation cascades below.

The $80,000–$83,000 range contains 117 large long positions totaling approximately $599 million, or about 50.6% of the total long exposure noted above.

The largest cost-basis band is $81,000–$82,000, with approximately 37.3% of its value coming from a single large position. If BTC rebounds, $81,599 and $82,525 will be key breakeven levels for the two larger groups of longs, respectively.

From the current price down to $76,000: nearby buy orders fail to offset selling pressure, leaving a net outflow overall

Breakdown by price range (positive values indicate potential net buying; negative values indicate potential net selling):

- $79,000–$79,938: Approximately $14.59 million in potential buying versus $27.63 million in selling, for net selling of around $13.04 million.

- $78,000–$79,000: Approximately $31.87 million in potential buying versus $37.18 million in selling, for net selling of around $5.31 million.

- $77,000–$78,000: Approximately $18.15 million in potential buying versus $59.10 million in selling, for net selling of around $40.94 million.

- $76,000–$77,000: Approximately $15.10 million in potential buying versus $47.49 million in selling, for net selling of around $32.40 million.

The $78,000–$79,000 range illustrates the direct clash between buy walls and liquidations: although the band has around $31.87 million in buy orders, exceeding the approximately $15.09 million in preset exit sell orders, adding the liquidation pressure from the remaining positions of nine longs—around $22.09 million—leaves the range with net selling of approximately $5.31 million.

$75,500–$76,000: First local net support above $10 million, but heavily reliant on a single large order

This band, around 4.9%–5.6% below the current price, is the first level below spot with potential net buying above $10 million. Eight accounts have buy orders totaling approximately $14.09 million; after offsetting liquidations, net buying is around $11.21 million.

The main source of support is a regular buy order of approximately $10.53 million at $75,555, added at 9 a.m. this morning. It accounts for about 74.7% of the band’s buy orders (0xb1ec). If this order is withdrawn, net support here would instantly shrink to around $680,000.

Additionally, immediately below is the $75,000–$75,500 range, where $59.94 million in full-position liquidation pressure is lurking (0xf081). If $75,500 is breached, approximately $52.22 million in selling pressure will emerge below.

$74,000–$75,000: First full $1,000 band with net absorption exceeding $10 million

In this band, around 6.2%–7.4% below the current price, 12 accounts have placed buy orders totaling approximately $31.59 million. After subtracting the roughly $20.17 million in liquidation pressure from the remaining positions of six longs, net buying comes to around $11.42 million.

The buying support relies mainly on two groups of orders: three buy orders between $74,252 and $74,702 (approximately $15.26 million, 0x92b7), and a single order at $74,258 (approximately $8.17 million, 0x6646).

Together, the two groups total approximately $23.43 million, or 74.2% of the buy orders in this band. If the largest group’s $15.26 million order is withdrawn, the range would shift to net selling of approximately $3.84 million.

If the adjacent $74,000–$76,000 ranges are viewed together, the two bands still show net selling of approximately $29.59 million. This may indicate that the current support is isolated, rather than forming a broader price zone.