$DOOD 14 This hourly candle surged from 0.00151 to 0.00194, up 28% in a single candle. The 24-hour contract price rose about 29%, with roughly $35.3 million in volume, and the intraday high touched 0.001968. The short squeeze looks like it has already won. But at the same time, Binance’s mark price was still about 2.6% below the index, and the next funding rate was stuck at -0.35%—shorts were still paying by the hour, spot and the index were leading the move up, and the contract price hadn’t fully caught up.
Who’s being forced to buy? Around 10 a.m., the price was still hovering near 0.00138, with contract open interest at about 2.82 billion tokens. After the vertical candle, open interest climbed to around 3.41 billion—those extra 600 million tokens in positions were added as the green candle rose, not old positions that had been sitting there before the squeeze. The share of retail accounts net long rose from around 65% in the morning to 66%, while large traders’ long positions stayed almost unchanged at around 54%—retail traders are chasing harder than the whales. The taker buy/sell ratio flipped from 0.8 to 1.2 between 1 and 2 p.m.; buyers really were lifting the price, but open interest was expanding at the same time. The 1 p.m. candle first lifted the price from 0.00143 to 0.00151 on about $1.98 million in volume—it was just a warm-up. The real fuel came in the 2 p.m. candle, with about $21 million in volume in a single hour. In the October 22 evening report, I said the 0.00208 level wouldn’t hold this week—it later touched 0.00137, so the price direction was right. But the washout signal I mentioned at the time (the share of long accounts falling back to 50%) never appeared. It bounced straight back without shaking out the weak hands, so the people chasing now are still the same crowded longs.
Technically, price is stretched beyond the upper band: 1-hour RSI is 85, the KDJ J-line is at 104, and price is about 13% above the Bollinger upper band at 0.00168. EMA12 is at 0.00151, the MACD histogram is still expanding, and ATR is about 4%. I see the 0.00197 area as an emotional spike, not a new base. The first pullback level to watch is the Bollinger upper band at 0.00168; if price can’t hold there, the next level is the moving average at 0.00151. Until the funding rate gets back near zero and the mark price moves back in line with the index, I won’t add to this move. I’m personally flat DOOD.
#DOOD #合约持仓 #Cryptocurrency
Who’s being forced to buy? Around 10 a.m., the price was still hovering near 0.00138, with contract open interest at about 2.82 billion tokens. After the vertical candle, open interest climbed to around 3.41 billion—those extra 600 million tokens in positions were added as the green candle rose, not old positions that had been sitting there before the squeeze. The share of retail accounts net long rose from around 65% in the morning to 66%, while large traders’ long positions stayed almost unchanged at around 54%—retail traders are chasing harder than the whales. The taker buy/sell ratio flipped from 0.8 to 1.2 between 1 and 2 p.m.; buyers really were lifting the price, but open interest was expanding at the same time. The 1 p.m. candle first lifted the price from 0.00143 to 0.00151 on about $1.98 million in volume—it was just a warm-up. The real fuel came in the 2 p.m. candle, with about $21 million in volume in a single hour. In the October 22 evening report, I said the 0.00208 level wouldn’t hold this week—it later touched 0.00137, so the price direction was right. But the washout signal I mentioned at the time (the share of long accounts falling back to 50%) never appeared. It bounced straight back without shaking out the weak hands, so the people chasing now are still the same crowded longs.
Technically, price is stretched beyond the upper band: 1-hour RSI is 85, the KDJ J-line is at 104, and price is about 13% above the Bollinger upper band at 0.00168. EMA12 is at 0.00151, the MACD histogram is still expanding, and ATR is about 4%. I see the 0.00197 area as an emotional spike, not a new base. The first pullback level to watch is the Bollinger upper band at 0.00168; if price can’t hold there, the next level is the moving average at 0.00151. Until the funding rate gets back near zero and the mark price moves back in line with the index, I won’t add to this move. I’m personally flat DOOD.
#DOOD #合约持仓 #Cryptocurrency
