SK Hynix earnings day: a date the market is seriously underestimating.
SK Hynix shares have plunged 24% over the past seven days. The drop is due to spreading concerns about AI capital spending, compounded by a valuation reset across the memory chip sector. But amid this sell-off, an important signal has been overlooked: on October 28, the day it reports earnings, the company may announce a special dividend of around ₩30 trillion (about $22 billion).
This isn’t just market speculation. Eugene Securities explicitly mentioned it in a report on August 24: SK Hynix announced a ₩40 trillion share buyback in August, with all repurchased shares to be canceled. It also raised its shareholder return commitment for 2025–2027 to more than 50% of FCF, and clearly signaled that a special cash dividend plan would be finalized at the October board meeting.
Now consider the broader data. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs have both weighed in: based on earnings forecasts for 2027–2028, SK Hynix is currently trading at just 2–3 times earnings. The normal valuation range during an upcycle for memory chips is 4–7 times earnings. Even without factoring in AI demand, a valuation based purely on the cycle puts the stock in historically undervalued territory.
Nomura Securities just said, “The memory chip shortage will last through 2028,” while AWS CEO Jassy said, “Capacity for 2027 is almost completely sold out.” Market concerns about AI investment have dragged chip stocks down, but the demand-side numbers haven’t changed.
The spillover chain to crypto:
Memory chips are a core component of AI computing infrastructure. SK Hynix is the world’s largest supplier of HBM (high-bandwidth memory), and all of Nvidia’s H-series and B-series GPUs rely on its products. A recovery in the memory sector → a renewed AI computing demand narrative → a rebound in Nasdaq AI heavyweights → BTC follows, given its 0.5–0.7 correlation with the Nasdaq.
More directly: a $22 billion special dividend flows into the market, and some of that capital will look for its next source of returns. Crypto assets have historically been one destination for this kind of money.
Of course, the special dividend has not yet been officially confirmed. The earnings figures themselves and the company’s guidance remain the top priorities on October 28.
October 28: SK Hynix earnings and the FOMC decision fall on the same day. The amount of information packed into that day will exceed what we’ve had over the past month combined.
Whether the trend can reverse comes down to these 48 hours.
$BTC #SKHynix
SK Hynix shares have plunged 24% over the past seven days. The drop is due to spreading concerns about AI capital spending, compounded by a valuation reset across the memory chip sector. But amid this sell-off, an important signal has been overlooked: on October 28, the day it reports earnings, the company may announce a special dividend of around ₩30 trillion (about $22 billion).
This isn’t just market speculation. Eugene Securities explicitly mentioned it in a report on August 24: SK Hynix announced a ₩40 trillion share buyback in August, with all repurchased shares to be canceled. It also raised its shareholder return commitment for 2025–2027 to more than 50% of FCF, and clearly signaled that a special cash dividend plan would be finalized at the October board meeting.
Now consider the broader data. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs have both weighed in: based on earnings forecasts for 2027–2028, SK Hynix is currently trading at just 2–3 times earnings. The normal valuation range during an upcycle for memory chips is 4–7 times earnings. Even without factoring in AI demand, a valuation based purely on the cycle puts the stock in historically undervalued territory.
Nomura Securities just said, “The memory chip shortage will last through 2028,” while AWS CEO Jassy said, “Capacity for 2027 is almost completely sold out.” Market concerns about AI investment have dragged chip stocks down, but the demand-side numbers haven’t changed.
The spillover chain to crypto:
Memory chips are a core component of AI computing infrastructure. SK Hynix is the world’s largest supplier of HBM (high-bandwidth memory), and all of Nvidia’s H-series and B-series GPUs rely on its products. A recovery in the memory sector → a renewed AI computing demand narrative → a rebound in Nasdaq AI heavyweights → BTC follows, given its 0.5–0.7 correlation with the Nasdaq.
More directly: a $22 billion special dividend flows into the market, and some of that capital will look for its next source of returns. Crypto assets have historically been one destination for this kind of money.
Of course, the special dividend has not yet been officially confirmed. The earnings figures themselves and the company’s guidance remain the top priorities on October 28.
October 28: SK Hynix earnings and the FOMC decision fall on the same day. The amount of information packed into that day will exceed what we’ve had over the past month combined.
Whether the trend can reverse comes down to these 48 hours.
$BTC #SKHynix