#股票财报季 #美国下周将公布Q3GDP和9月PCE
About one-third of S&P 500 companies report earnings next week. Capital expenditure guidance from Alphabet, $MSFTB Microsoft, and $AMZNB Amazon will be a litmus test for the AI trade. Results from Meta and Lam Research have already driven the Nasdaq to its biggest one-day drop since June, shifting the focus from demand for computing power to whether roughly $800 billion in annual capex can deliver returns amid rising financing costs.
Since the start of 2026, earnings weeks have often coincided with central bank weeks. Microsoft, Meta, and Qualcomm have all faced similar scrutiny around rate decisions, repeatedly highlighting the AI hardware chain’s sensitivity to interest rates and returns.
The mismatch in rate expectations also deserves attention: markets expect a pause in rate hikes next week, but put the probability of a December hike at about 80%, following September’s first hike since 2023.
A brief pause, followed by a prolonged tightening cycle—combined with the November 3 midterm elections—means capex guidance could trigger more volatility than quarterly earnings. Q3 earnings are expected to grow more than 32% year over year, but that alone may not be enough to stabilize the valuation anchor for AI.
About one-third of S&P 500 companies report earnings next week. Capital expenditure guidance from Alphabet, $MSFTB Microsoft, and $AMZNB Amazon will be a litmus test for the AI trade. Results from Meta and Lam Research have already driven the Nasdaq to its biggest one-day drop since June, shifting the focus from demand for computing power to whether roughly $800 billion in annual capex can deliver returns amid rising financing costs.
Since the start of 2026, earnings weeks have often coincided with central bank weeks. Microsoft, Meta, and Qualcomm have all faced similar scrutiny around rate decisions, repeatedly highlighting the AI hardware chain’s sensitivity to interest rates and returns.
The mismatch in rate expectations also deserves attention: markets expect a pause in rate hikes next week, but put the probability of a December hike at about 80%, following September’s first hike since 2023.
A brief pause, followed by a prolonged tightening cycle—combined with the November 3 midterm elections—means capex guidance could trigger more volatility than quarterly earnings. Q3 earnings are expected to grow more than 32% year over year, but that alone may not be enough to stabilize the valuation anchor for AI.
