$BMT 24 hours later, it had plunged nearly 26%, falling from a high of 0.0408 to 0.0293, with about $147 million in futures trading volume. A drop like this would usually be seen as long positions getting liquidated and flushed out, but Binance whales’ long-position share has actually risen from 51% in the morning to 55% now.
Open interest has fallen from its 1 a.m. peak of 247 million tokens to 214 million, down about 13%, but it’s still roughly around the same baseline as the night before last. Retail accounts’ long share stayed around 52% all day, with no sign of large-scale long liquidations. The real activity is among the whales: during those two candles from 20:00 to 22:00, when the price made new lows, their long-position share climbed again from 53.6% to 54.9%. Funding is still negative: it briefly hit negative 17 ten-thousandths at noon, and was around negative 25 ten-thousandths at the 22:00 settlement, meaning shorts are paying. Who’s being forced out? Shorts sitting in negative funding, paying longs every eight hours. As the price falls further, whales take over some of those positions. It looks like a flush, but structurally, the market hasn’t fully cleared. During the sharp drop at 9 a.m., open interest fell from 232 million to 223 million, as if some positions had been cut. But when the price continued drifting down in the afternoon, open interest built back and forth between 225 million and 233 million, suggesting new positions were coming in rather than one-sided position-closing.
In yesterday’s post at 10:38, I wrote that 0.0418 was a liquidation-driven spike and that I wouldn’t add to my position. The price later peaked at 0.049 before crashing all the way back to where it is now. I got the direction right; the rebound in between was just stronger than I expected. Technically, the 1-hour MACD histogram is still deepening, the 21:00 candle pierced the Keltner lower band at 0.0288, and the current price is hovering right along the lower band. EMA12 at 0.031 is capping the rebound, and ATR is about 7.9%. I see the 0.0288 lower band as temporary support, not as confirmation that the flush is complete. If open interest stays above 210 million and whales’ long-position share can’t fall back below 52%, the first rebound target is the moving average at 0.031. To change my view, I’d need to see open interest drop below 200 million while funding rates approach positive territory. I have no position in BMT; with this kind of structure, I’m not adding.
#BMT #合约持仓 #Crypto
Open interest has fallen from its 1 a.m. peak of 247 million tokens to 214 million, down about 13%, but it’s still roughly around the same baseline as the night before last. Retail accounts’ long share stayed around 52% all day, with no sign of large-scale long liquidations. The real activity is among the whales: during those two candles from 20:00 to 22:00, when the price made new lows, their long-position share climbed again from 53.6% to 54.9%. Funding is still negative: it briefly hit negative 17 ten-thousandths at noon, and was around negative 25 ten-thousandths at the 22:00 settlement, meaning shorts are paying. Who’s being forced out? Shorts sitting in negative funding, paying longs every eight hours. As the price falls further, whales take over some of those positions. It looks like a flush, but structurally, the market hasn’t fully cleared. During the sharp drop at 9 a.m., open interest fell from 232 million to 223 million, as if some positions had been cut. But when the price continued drifting down in the afternoon, open interest built back and forth between 225 million and 233 million, suggesting new positions were coming in rather than one-sided position-closing.
In yesterday’s post at 10:38, I wrote that 0.0418 was a liquidation-driven spike and that I wouldn’t add to my position. The price later peaked at 0.049 before crashing all the way back to where it is now. I got the direction right; the rebound in between was just stronger than I expected. Technically, the 1-hour MACD histogram is still deepening, the 21:00 candle pierced the Keltner lower band at 0.0288, and the current price is hovering right along the lower band. EMA12 at 0.031 is capping the rebound, and ATR is about 7.9%. I see the 0.0288 lower band as temporary support, not as confirmation that the flush is complete. If open interest stays above 210 million and whales’ long-position share can’t fall back below 52%, the first rebound target is the moving average at 0.031. To change my view, I’d need to see open interest drop below 200 million while funding rates approach positive territory. I have no position in BMT; with this kind of structure, I’m not adding.
#BMT #合约持仓 #Crypto
