This weekend, the more I look at these numbers, the more confused I get đ
The University of Michiganâs final October reading is out.
Consumersâ expectations for inflation over the next year rose to 4.7%,
up another 0.1 percentage point from September.
Longer-term expectations also climbed from 3.4% to 3.5%.
Both figures have risen for the second month in a row,
and are at their highest levels since May.
The sentiment index barely moved:
48.0, compared with 48.1 in Septemberâbasically flat.
But a closer look shows a split:
People feel worse about the present, while their expectations for the future have improved.
Put simply: things are tough right now, but people are still hoping theyâll get a little easier down the road.
People arenât buying big-ticket items, and the reasons are spelled out plainly: high prices, plus high interest rates.
Whatâs interesting is how the market is pricing things on the other side.
Traders are now assigning only about a 10% chance to a rate hike next week.
Theyâre betting the next move will come in December.
On one side, consumers think inflation is going to rise;
on the other, the market thinks the Fed wonât make a move next week.
One side will have to admit it was wrong first.
The October 27â28 meeting will be when we get the answer.
The same goes for $BTC .
Rising inflation expectations should, in theory, make scarce assets more attractive.
But if interest rates really stay high, speculative money will be the first to leave.
So Iâm not going to guess which way things will go next week.
Iâll just be watching two things: what the post-meeting statement says about inflation,
and which way that 10% market probability moves.
Which side do you think will admit it was wrong first: consumers or the market?
$BTC $ETH
#çžčĺ¨ #éč #Bitcoin
Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.
The University of Michiganâs final October reading is out.
Consumersâ expectations for inflation over the next year rose to 4.7%,
up another 0.1 percentage point from September.
Longer-term expectations also climbed from 3.4% to 3.5%.
Both figures have risen for the second month in a row,
and are at their highest levels since May.
The sentiment index barely moved:
48.0, compared with 48.1 in Septemberâbasically flat.
But a closer look shows a split:
People feel worse about the present, while their expectations for the future have improved.
Put simply: things are tough right now, but people are still hoping theyâll get a little easier down the road.
People arenât buying big-ticket items, and the reasons are spelled out plainly: high prices, plus high interest rates.
Whatâs interesting is how the market is pricing things on the other side.
Traders are now assigning only about a 10% chance to a rate hike next week.
Theyâre betting the next move will come in December.
On one side, consumers think inflation is going to rise;
on the other, the market thinks the Fed wonât make a move next week.
One side will have to admit it was wrong first.
The October 27â28 meeting will be when we get the answer.
The same goes for $BTC .
Rising inflation expectations should, in theory, make scarce assets more attractive.
But if interest rates really stay high, speculative money will be the first to leave.
So Iâm not going to guess which way things will go next week.
Iâll just be watching two things: what the post-meeting statement says about inflation,
and which way that 10% market probability moves.
Which side do you think will admit it was wrong first: consumers or the market?
$BTC $ETH
#çžčĺ¨ #éč #Bitcoin
Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.