Daily Derivatives Market｜10/25: $80,000 Lost, Longs Crowded Again
The previous note about “rising open interest skewed long, with $80,000 under pressure” has played out.
$BTC briefly fell below $80,000, with $404 million in long positions liquidated within four hours. By midday, the mark price had recovered to $80,912.5, but the change was still -0.03%. That counts as reclaiming the level, not escaping the pressure.
More unusually, leveraged longs began piling back in after the liquidations.
Bitcoin futures open interest rose to $7.615 billion, up 0.7%. Longs made up 69% of positions, aggressive buying was about 1.37 times selling, and the funding rate held at +0.0085%.
Despite buyers having the upper hand, prices failed to rise significantly, suggesting that new positions are being absorbed by sell orders overhead.
The spot market has also failed to support a rebound.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw net outflows of $773 million over two days, weakening buying support. The Fear and Greed Index remains at 54—not a sign of extreme fear—suggesting this pullback looks more like a leveraged-position shakeout than a complete washout in sentiment.
Funding rates in some contracts have become distorted.
The $T funding rate fell as low as -1.334%, putting shorts under intense pressure to pay and making a short-term squeeze possible. The $O funding rate rose to +0.094%, marking an area of crowded longs.
Such extreme funding rates reflect localized squeezes, not the direction of the broader market.
For now, watch only the combination of $80,000 and open interest.
Holding above $80,000 alongside falling open interest would indicate that leveraged risk is being flushed out. If open interest keeps rising and the level is breached again, the risk of a second wave of concentrated long liquidations will climb rapidly.
Prepared with assistance from Claude Fable 5 using derivatives data. For informational purposes only; please verify independently.
The previous note about “rising open interest skewed long, with $80,000 under pressure” has played out.
$BTC briefly fell below $80,000, with $404 million in long positions liquidated within four hours. By midday, the mark price had recovered to $80,912.5, but the change was still -0.03%. That counts as reclaiming the level, not escaping the pressure.
More unusually, leveraged longs began piling back in after the liquidations.
Bitcoin futures open interest rose to $7.615 billion, up 0.7%. Longs made up 69% of positions, aggressive buying was about 1.37 times selling, and the funding rate held at +0.0085%.
Despite buyers having the upper hand, prices failed to rise significantly, suggesting that new positions are being absorbed by sell orders overhead.
The spot market has also failed to support a rebound.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw net outflows of $773 million over two days, weakening buying support. The Fear and Greed Index remains at 54—not a sign of extreme fear—suggesting this pullback looks more like a leveraged-position shakeout than a complete washout in sentiment.
Funding rates in some contracts have become distorted.
The $T funding rate fell as low as -1.334%, putting shorts under intense pressure to pay and making a short-term squeeze possible. The $O funding rate rose to +0.094%, marking an area of crowded longs.
Such extreme funding rates reflect localized squeezes, not the direction of the broader market.
For now, watch only the combination of $80,000 and open interest.
Holding above $80,000 alongside falling open interest would indicate that leveraged risk is being flushed out. If open interest keeps rising and the level is breached again, the risk of a second wave of concentrated long liquidations will climb rapidly.
Prepared with assistance from Claude Fable 5 using derivatives data. For informational purposes only; please verify independently.