$BMT 10:30That 15-minute candle shot from 0.0261 to 0.0408—a 56% gain in fifteen minutes—yet Binance perpetuals’ mark price was still 4.6% below the index. The price went vertical while the contract was still trading at a discount. That’s what makes this spike so awkward.
It’s up about 47% over 24 hours, with a high of 0.0419. Perpetual futures volume was around $93 million, and this morning’s low was 0.0218. In the hours before the surge, the share of accounts net long across the market stayed around 44%; more than half were positioned short. At the moment of the spike, open interest jumped from 209 million to 234 million tokens—up 24.3 million in fifteen minutes—and its notional value rose from $5.47 million to $9.25 million. But the share of accounts net long has only just reached 49%, still below half. New positions are piling in, but the shorts haven’t been flushed out. The long-to-short ratio for top trader accounts is only around 52% too—not an outright shift to the long side.
The funding rate is currently -0.29%, meaning shorts are paying longs. The 1-hour RSI has reached 85.3, and the price is about 43% above the Keltner upper band at 0.028. The MACD histogram expanded straight from near zero to 0.0012, while EMA12 is still around 0.026. Who is being forced to close shorts—and who is adding shorts at this level—will determine whether this spike was a one-off sweep or whether there’s another move to come. This structure doesn’t look like retail all piling into longs; it looks more like shorts getting squeezed, but not fully. The discount is still there, which suggests that short-side positioning hasn’t exited.
Until the discount narrows to within 2% and the share of accounts net long climbs above 55%, I’ll treat 0.0418 as a liquidation-squeeze spike, not the start of a trend. First, watch whether the price can hold above the 1-hour Bollinger upper band at 0.032. For me to change my view, I’d need to see the mark price return close to the index, while the 15-minute candle closes back below 0.028. I don’t have a position in BMT, and I’m staying out of both sides at this level.
#BMT #合约数据 #Short-term volatility
It’s up about 47% over 24 hours, with a high of 0.0419. Perpetual futures volume was around $93 million, and this morning’s low was 0.0218. In the hours before the surge, the share of accounts net long across the market stayed around 44%; more than half were positioned short. At the moment of the spike, open interest jumped from 209 million to 234 million tokens—up 24.3 million in fifteen minutes—and its notional value rose from $5.47 million to $9.25 million. But the share of accounts net long has only just reached 49%, still below half. New positions are piling in, but the shorts haven’t been flushed out. The long-to-short ratio for top trader accounts is only around 52% too—not an outright shift to the long side.
The funding rate is currently -0.29%, meaning shorts are paying longs. The 1-hour RSI has reached 85.3, and the price is about 43% above the Keltner upper band at 0.028. The MACD histogram expanded straight from near zero to 0.0012, while EMA12 is still around 0.026. Who is being forced to close shorts—and who is adding shorts at this level—will determine whether this spike was a one-off sweep or whether there’s another move to come. This structure doesn’t look like retail all piling into longs; it looks more like shorts getting squeezed, but not fully. The discount is still there, which suggests that short-side positioning hasn’t exited.
Until the discount narrows to within 2% and the share of accounts net long climbs above 55%, I’ll treat 0.0418 as a liquidation-squeeze spike, not the start of a trend. First, watch whether the price can hold above the 1-hour Bollinger upper band at 0.032. For me to change my view, I’d need to see the mark price return close to the index, while the 15-minute candle closes back below 0.028. I don’t have a position in BMT, and I’m staying out of both sides at this level.
#BMT #合约数据 #Short-term volatility