After the daily candle closed at 8 a.m. this morning, 18 coins on Binance Futures had a daily MACD golden cross. For all of them, it was the first daily candle after the cross. As usual, they’re divided into three groups based on their performance on the day of the golden cross.
The takeaway: BIRB was the strongest, doubling again the morning after the golden cross. But historically, people who chase moves like this mostly lose money at first. The surge group from the previous report fell around 30% in just 3 days.
▍Review of the previous report
The October 21 cohort had 17 coins. From the close on the day of the golden cross to 10:30 a.m. today, only 3 were up; the average was down 4.3%.
Group 1 (surged on high volume): JCT fell 44%, DOOD fell 29%, and IOST fell 28%. Last time I said, “Don’t chase; wait for a pullback.” In just 3 days, they gave back around a third of their gains.
Group 2 (high volume, no surge): ERA did best, up 24.5%; GRVT did worst, down 11.5%; the average was down 0.5%.
Group 3 (low volume, near the lows): AIOT rose 8.7%, LIGHT rose 6.3%, CRV fell 9.2%, and the average was down 1.6%.
Three days isn’t enough to tell us much, but it’s in line with the backtest: after a surge, coins that form a golden cross are more likely to pull back first.
▍First, a quick explainer: What is a MACD golden cross?
MACD has two lines: a fast line and a slow line. When the fast line crosses above the slow line, that’s called a golden cross. It means the recent price momentum is stronger than before.
A golden cross below the zero line is generally the first rebound during a downtrend; one above the zero line means a coin that’s already rising has picked up more momentum.
▍Backtest: I looked at one more thing this time
I ran the numbers on nearly 1,000 days of daily Binance futures candles (633 coins, including delisted ones). There were 13,086 daily golden crosses in total. Assuming you bought at the close on the day of the golden cross:
All golden crosses: 7 days later, 38.6% closed higher, versus 42.8% for buying on a randomly chosen day. The golden cross itself offers no edge.
Golden crosses with a high-volume surge (up more than 30% that day, with volume over 10 times the usual amount): 185 instances. On average, they closed 15.7% lower 7 days later; 83% fell 20% first, but 20% doubled within 30 days.
This time I looked at one more thing: what happens the day after the golden cross. Of those 185 instances, 70 kept rising the next day, and 38% doubled within 30 days; 115 fell back the next day, and only 8.8% doubled, while 94% fell 20% first.
Golden crosses with high volume but no surge: 739 instances. 36.5% closed higher 7 days later, and the average return at 30 days was a loss of 11.4%. Low-volume golden crosses: 8,756 instances, with results about the same as buying on any random day.
▍Group 1: High-volume surge, then another big jump the next day
BIRB: Up 44.2% on the day of the golden cross, with $345 million in volume—362 times the usual amount—and a daily RSI of 71. In the one-hour period starting at 8 a.m. today, it surged from 0.076 to 0.203. It’s now at 0.157, up 106% from the close on the golden-cross day.
Shorts are paying: the funding rate is −0.92% every 4 hours, meaning shorts pay longs nearly 1% every 4 hours. All 8 settlements since yesterday have been negative, with the largest at −1.99%.
The futures price is 1.5% below spot, which means spot is driving the rally while shorts in futures are holding on. From 8 a.m. until now, the price doubled, but futures open interest fell from 74.2 million tokens to 63.8 million, down 14%. Some shorts have closed their positions or been liquidated.
It isn’t available on Binance spot; it’s on Alpha, with an estimated circulating market cap of about $44 million. Buy orders within 2% below the futures price total only $40,000—the order book is thin.
Historically, there were 11 instances of a high-volume surge and golden cross followed by a rise of more than 50% the next day. Buying at the next day’s close, the average close 7 days later was down 35%, and 82% fell 20% first. But 4 doubled again within 30 days; the biggest mover was AKE, which rose nearly 15x at its peak within 30 days.
So don’t chase BIRB. Shorts are still paying such a high funding rate, which suggests they haven’t all been liquidated yet and there may be another push higher. But once the liquidations are over, most follow the pattern described above.
▍Group 2: High volume, but no surge
IN: Up 21.5%, with volume 24 times the usual amount, and up another 23% today. Futures open interest doubled overnight from 47.8 million tokens to 99.8 million, while the funding rate shifted from +0.005% to −0.11%. More of the newly opened positions are shorts. It looks a bit like the day before BIRB doubled, but it’s only a resemblance.
AKE: Up 23.9%, with volume 9 times the usual amount. The golden cross is above the zero line. But it had a death cross on October 21 and another golden cross on the 23rd, so the signals are conflicting; today it gave back 9.8%. Among the largest accounts on Binance futures, 59% of positions are shorts.
INIT: Up 15.5%, with volume 8 times the usual amount. The daily RSI is 74, which is already on the hot side, and the price has moved above its 90-day high. Today it gave back 7.5%. In the backtest, golden crosses above the zero line were down 11% on average after 30 days.
REZ: Down 0.8%, despite volume being 6.7 times the usual amount. High volume without a price rise could mean someone is buying or someone is selling. Watch for direction over the next few days.
M, WET, KERNEL: Up 5% to 9%, with volume 5 to 6 times the usual amount. M has the largest circulating market cap in this group, around $2.16 billion, so it may move more slowly.
▍Group 3: Low volume, or still consolidating near the lows
B, MELANIA, SLX, IDOL, BABY, F, INX, TRADOOR, OPEN, AVAAI: On the day of the golden cross, they ranged from down 3.3% to up 6%, with volume 0.7 to 3.1 times the usual amount. They’re still 10% to 48% below their 30-day highs. These golden crosses are often just a breather after an exhausting decline; in the backtest, they performed about the same as buying on any random day.
▍How I use this list
Just keep it on the watchlist; this is not a buy signal.
Group 1: Don’t chase BIRB. Before the funding rate turns positive and futures open interest starts rising, some of the price increase comes from shorts getting liquidated—it’s not all new money.
Group 2: Watch it over the next 3 to 5 days. Keep watching only if it holds above the low on the day of the golden cross.
Group 3: Set it aside for now and wait for volume to pick up.
Whichever one you look at, use only 1x leverage.
Which of these 18 are you most interested in watching? Let me know in the comments, and I’ll review them all in the next episode.
This is not investment advice.