Talking about the market, Ethereum is doing well today. I think there are two reasons. First, eigenlayer has opened deposits. As of yesterday, the pledge amount has increased by $1 billion, most of which is ETH.
Second, the Ethereum test network Cancun upgrade is coming. According to the community, the Dencun upgrade will be activated on the Holesky test network in less than 12 hours. This is the last test network fork before the main network. The main network upgrade time will also be announced tomorrow, so everyone’s expectations have been mobilized.
Then let's talk about the copycat. Binance officially launched dym. The FDV market value of this project exceeded 5 billion at the opening, and reached a maximum of 6.3 billion US dollars. This market value is close to 40% of tia, and has exceeded all the newly launched projects in recent times. Currently, jup is 5 billion US dollars, pyth is 4.8 billion US dollars, manta is 3.6 billion US dollars, alt is 3 billion US dollars, and ron is 2.5 billion US dollars. This shows that the narrative of modularization is still very powerful. Of course, the current price is also too high like jup. I don't recommend chasing highs. If you are optimistic in the long term, you have to wait for a correction.
BTC: Bitcoin has basically been stuck around 43,000 in the short term, and the volume has shrunk significantly. The transaction volume in 24 hours was only 1 billion US dollars. It is estimated that there will not be much market before the New Year. The real big market will break out in Q3 and Q4 of the second half of the year, so these are all preparations before the outbreak.
The Chinese New Year is coming soon. Everyone should adjust their mindset, spend time with family and have a good New Year. After the New Year, you must work hard and actively participate in the fields of hot tracks, cherishing and seizing every hard-won opportunity.
ETH: The exact time of the mainnet Cancun upgrade will be determined tomorrow. Secondly, eigenlayer has opened deposits, and everyone has deposited their idle ETH, resulting in a further reduction in market liquidity. These two are both positive events. Next, let’s wait for the hype of the Cancun upgrade to come.
Several major events are expected to take place in February:
1. Hong Kong’s first spot BTC ETF
A few weeks ago, large Chinese asset manager Harvest Global Investments applied for Hong Kong’s first spot BTC ETF.
Another financial giant, Venture Smart Financial Holdings, has set the first quarter of 2024 as the target for launching a BTC ETF.
Additionally, Hong Kong regulators confirmed in December that they were considering accepting applications for a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Harvest Global Investments appears to be aiming to launch Hong Kong’s first spot Bitcoin ETF after February 10.
It sounds too good to be true, but maybe Hong Kong will approve a spot BTC ETF this month. Also, just in case, Venture Smart Financial Holdings revealed that they plan to launch a spot ETH ETF in Hong Kong in the second quarter.
The launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States was undoubtedly a huge success, with total net flows exceeding $1.5 billion despite the huge selling pressure brought by Grayscale.
A spot Bitcoin ETF in Hong Kong could also attract a lot of money.
2. Ethereum Dencun upgrade final test
The final testnet deployment of Dencun will take place on February 7 on Ethereum’s Holesky testnet.
If all goes well, Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade could go live on the mainnet in March or April.
Dencun was a big deal mainly because it introduced proto-danksharding.
By reducing the “rent” required for L2 to inherit Ethereum’s security, proto-danksharding is expected to significantly reduce L2 transaction fees.
L2 has come a long way in the past two years, and if Dencun lives up to the community’s expectations, it will likely attract a large number of new users to Ethereum L2 as it will make L2 more affordable.
3. Main Token Unlock
New month, new token unlocks. Wu Blockchain made a great chart showing the largest tokens expected to be unlocked in February.
Two in particular caught my attention:
APT - $229 million worth of APT (7.3% of its circulating supply) will be unlocked on February 11th.
SAND - $94M worth of SAND (9% of circulating supply) will be unlocked on February 14th.
There are also $330 million worth of AVAX tokens that will be unlocked on February 22. However, although the amount unlocked this time is large, the $330 million AVAX tokens only account for 2.6% of the circulating supply of tokens.
Other events
There are several important time points worth noting:
February 13 - US CPI data.
February 12 - Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit.
February 23 - CZ (Binance founder) hearing.
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