When it comes to market prophets, the easiest thing to blurt out is a call like “BTC is going to $100,000.”
That kind of call can never be wrong. It doesn’t say when it’ll get there, or what price it would have to fall to for you to admit you got it wrong. You can leave it hanging there for three years. “Altcoin season is right around the corner” and “the bull market isn’t over yet” are the same sort of thing. They sound plausible, but look back six months later and there’s no way to tell whether they were right or wrong.
Calls that can actually be tested look ugly when you write them down. You have to spell out the price, when you’ll check the result, and what would count as being wrong. It’s not pretty, but a few days later, when you pull it back up, the right or wrong answer is right there—you can’t wriggle out of it.
So here’s one from me. BTC is at 81,700 right now, and I’m waiting for that dip to 80,000. If it dips and bounces back, the bulls still have some fight left. If it dips and can’t recover, then I got it wrong—and I’ll be the one to say so in my next post.
I haven’t come across many genuine market prophets over the years, but I’ve sure met plenty of loudmouths, haha.
</textContent> #币安神算子
That kind of call can never be wrong. It doesn’t say when it’ll get there, or what price it would have to fall to for you to admit you got it wrong. You can leave it hanging there for three years. “Altcoin season is right around the corner” and “the bull market isn’t over yet” are the same sort of thing. They sound plausible, but look back six months later and there’s no way to tell whether they were right or wrong.
Calls that can actually be tested look ugly when you write them down. You have to spell out the price, when you’ll check the result, and what would count as being wrong. It’s not pretty, but a few days later, when you pull it back up, the right or wrong answer is right there—you can’t wriggle out of it.
So here’s one from me. BTC is at 81,700 right now, and I’m waiting for that dip to 80,000. If it dips and bounces back, the bulls still have some fight left. If it dips and can’t recover, then I got it wrong—and I’ll be the one to say so in my next post.
I haven’t come across many genuine market prophets over the years, but I’ve sure met plenty of loudmouths, haha.
</textContent> #币安神算子
