$AKE fell from 0.0377 at 6 p.m. last night to 0.0220 now—a 42% drop in less than a day—yet open interest in Binance futures grew by 85 million tokens.
After the token unlock on the 21st, AKE plunged from 0.0363 to 0.0281 in the hour starting at 7 p.m. last night. It has since fallen to 0.0220, and the slide hasn’t let up. Normally, a drop this sharp would mean long positions had been liquidated and open interest had shrunk. Instead, the opposite happened: perpetual futures open interest rose from 458 million tokens to 543 million, up 19%. Each time the price moved lower, more traders opened short positions in futures.
The position breakdown makes it clear who’s adding to their positions. Among the accounts with the largest open interest, the share of long positions fell from 46.3% to 44.9%—they’ve been consistently on the short side. The proportion of retail accounts going long, meanwhile, dropped steadily from 60.4% to 50.5%, before rebounding to 54.7% after the midday bounce from 0.0210 to 0.0247. That bounce has already been given back, leaving all the longs who chased it underwater. If their stop-losses are triggered, that will create a fresh wave of selling. My read is that people who received tokens from the unlock are selling on the spot market while opening short positions in futures to hedge. This selling pressure won’t simply stop on its own just because the price has fallen a lot.
On the indicators, the 4-hour Bollinger lower band is at 0.0220, and the price is sitting right on it. The 4-hour RSI(14) is 33.3, still some distance from extreme oversold territory. The daily EMA50 is at 0.0264, now well above the price; the medium-term trend has already turned weak.
Consider the same setup last month. On September 21, the day of that unlock, Binance perpetual futures closed the daily session at 0.0578. Eight days later, they closed at 0.0304, a 47% drop. This time the decline has been faster, with most of the move happening in a single day. But open interest is still rising, which suggests the bears aren’t ready to call it quits.
My view is that if AKE can’t reclaim 0.0247 by the end of this week, it will break below 0.0210, with the September 17 low of 0.0186 as the next level to watch. A signal that would change my view would be open interest falling back below 500 million tokens while the price holds above 0.0210. That would suggest shorts are starting to cover and could allow a rebound toward 0.0264. I don’t have a position in AKE, and I’m staying out of both longs and shorts until the post-unlock supply has been absorbed.
#AKE #TokenUnlock
After the token unlock on the 21st, AKE plunged from 0.0363 to 0.0281 in the hour starting at 7 p.m. last night. It has since fallen to 0.0220, and the slide hasn’t let up. Normally, a drop this sharp would mean long positions had been liquidated and open interest had shrunk. Instead, the opposite happened: perpetual futures open interest rose from 458 million tokens to 543 million, up 19%. Each time the price moved lower, more traders opened short positions in futures.
The position breakdown makes it clear who’s adding to their positions. Among the accounts with the largest open interest, the share of long positions fell from 46.3% to 44.9%—they’ve been consistently on the short side. The proportion of retail accounts going long, meanwhile, dropped steadily from 60.4% to 50.5%, before rebounding to 54.7% after the midday bounce from 0.0210 to 0.0247. That bounce has already been given back, leaving all the longs who chased it underwater. If their stop-losses are triggered, that will create a fresh wave of selling. My read is that people who received tokens from the unlock are selling on the spot market while opening short positions in futures to hedge. This selling pressure won’t simply stop on its own just because the price has fallen a lot.
On the indicators, the 4-hour Bollinger lower band is at 0.0220, and the price is sitting right on it. The 4-hour RSI(14) is 33.3, still some distance from extreme oversold territory. The daily EMA50 is at 0.0264, now well above the price; the medium-term trend has already turned weak.
Consider the same setup last month. On September 21, the day of that unlock, Binance perpetual futures closed the daily session at 0.0578. Eight days later, they closed at 0.0304, a 47% drop. This time the decline has been faster, with most of the move happening in a single day. But open interest is still rising, which suggests the bears aren’t ready to call it quits.
My view is that if AKE can’t reclaim 0.0247 by the end of this week, it will break below 0.0210, with the September 17 low of 0.0186 as the next level to watch. A signal that would change my view would be open interest falling back below 500 million tokens while the price holds above 0.0210. That would suggest shorts are starting to cover and could allow a rebound toward 0.0264. I don’t have a position in AKE, and I’m staying out of both longs and shorts until the post-unlock supply has been absorbed.
#AKE #TokenUnlock