【U.S. Premarket 10/22】Index futures before the market opens: S&P 500 -0.70%, Nasdaq -1.33%, Dow -0.35%.
Today’s releases: At 8:30 p.m. Beijing time, initial jobless claims for last week (forecast: 200K; previous: 199K); at 10:00 p.m. Beijing time, September Leading Economic Index month over month (forecast: -0.1%; previous: -0.1%).
U.S. Treasury yields: 10-year 5.09% (-5.6 basis points), 2-year 4.782% (-4.1 basis points). WTI crude oil: $98.67 (+1.56%); Brent crude oil: $110.92 (+1.93%); gold: $4,107 (-1.04%). Federal funds futures imply an 86% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the 10/28 FOMC meeting (FedWatch methodology). Based on the CME FedWatch methodology (federal funds futures + New York Fed EFFR), as of the December 9 FOMC meeting, the probability of at least one more rate hike this year (a cumulative 25 basis points) is 89.1%; prediction markets using the same basis show 76.3% on Polymarket and 81.0% on Kalshi.
$SPY , with an options wall at 780 above and 769 below. SPY key levels calculated by the system from the data (not trading advice): above, 774.03, 775.14, and 776.85 (swing highs over the past 60 trading days); below, 769 (put options wall), 762.04 (swing low over the past 60 trading days), and 760.64 (previous week’s low / swing low over the past 60 trading days).
Today’s releases: At 8:30 p.m. Beijing time, initial jobless claims for last week (forecast: 200K; previous: 199K); at 10:00 p.m. Beijing time, September Leading Economic Index month over month (forecast: -0.1%; previous: -0.1%).
U.S. Treasury yields: 10-year 5.09% (-5.6 basis points), 2-year 4.782% (-4.1 basis points). WTI crude oil: $98.67 (+1.56%); Brent crude oil: $110.92 (+1.93%); gold: $4,107 (-1.04%). Federal funds futures imply an 86% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the 10/28 FOMC meeting (FedWatch methodology). Based on the CME FedWatch methodology (federal funds futures + New York Fed EFFR), as of the December 9 FOMC meeting, the probability of at least one more rate hike this year (a cumulative 25 basis points) is 89.1%; prediction markets using the same basis show 76.3% on Polymarket and 81.0% on Kalshi.
$SPY , with an options wall at 780 above and 769 below. SPY key levels calculated by the system from the data (not trading advice): above, 774.03, 775.14, and 776.85 (swing highs over the past 60 trading days); below, 769 (put options wall), 762.04 (swing low over the past 60 trading days), and 760.64 (previous week’s low / swing low over the past 60 trading days).