#股票财报季
At 5:22 a.m., the U.S. stock market was still closed. In just six minutes, a batch of U.S. stock positions was wiped out 🦖
In the early hours of October 18, large sell orders suddenly appeared in U.S. stock contracts on crypto platforms. $407,000 was traded in one second, then $1.03 million the next. Less than a second later, 10 addresses collectively sold six contracts—including SNDK, MU, and SOXL—within 1.8 seconds. Every trade opened a new short position.
💬 群里一起聊行情
Six minutes later, trading volume for MU contracts surged to around $10 million per minute, triggering a cascade of liquidations. MU briefly fell to $818.57, 6% below its pre-flash-crash price, then recovered most of the loss within an hour 💥
Accounts holding actual shares were unaffected over the weekend. Those liquidated were people trading contracts with leverage. The price came back; their positions didn’t.
The IMF’s October Global Financial Stability Report gives an even clearer picture: tokenized stocks are about 1.5 times as volatile as their underlying shares. Data from 30 weekends also shows that when the Monday opening gap exceeds 1%, perpetual contracts predict the direction correctly 69% of the time—but by Sunday evening in New York, they reflect only about a quarter of the gap’s size ⚠️
The real change is in the cycle. Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in October 2025, then hit a low of $59,100 in June 2026—a 53% drawdown. Previous bear markets saw drawdowns of 77% to 93%, making this one almost half as deep.
Who’s providing the support? ETFs saw net outflows of about $10 billion from November 2025 to June 2026, including $4.5 billion in June alone. Then $6.3 billion flowed back in from July to September. Stablecoins have contracted just 3% from this year’s peak, compared with 26% in 2022. Tokenized U.S. Treasuries grew from $9 billion to $16 billion and now stand at $14.5 billion, with around 85,500 holders.
But in reality, there’s only one major buyer. The largest bitcoin-treasury company increased its holdings from 650,000 coins to 843,775, adding 194,000. In January this year, it accounted for 97.5% of net purchases by publicly listed companies. It stopped buying after the week of June 22. Relying on a single company’s ability to raise capital for support—that’s the fragile part 📉
On the other hand, the tokenized U.S. stock market is worth around $3.45 billion. Offshore tokenized stock trading volume is just 0.084% of the median volume in traditional markets. Of the 63 stocks, nine issuing companies have directly objected. Each individual large-cap stock is capped at 0.25% of its daily volume; the first 63 stocks together have a daily cap of around $710 million, with Nvidia capped at $64 million.
Put simply, crypto now needs U.S. stocks to smooth out its cycles, but can access them only under Wall Street’s rules. The regulated format best suited to providing stability is also the most heavily restricted. So in the short term, it dampens volatility—not the cycle itself.
My take: It’s getting harder for Bitcoin to chart an independent course this cycle. Earnings season, the Fed, and Treasury yields all feed directly into crypto prices. What could really change the script is whether on-chain capital is willing to treat U.S. stocks as collateral and a place to park funds—not just another high-leverage bet.
Do you think Bitcoin can still have its own four-year cycle, or will it be driven by the Nasdaq and earnings from now on? Let’s talk in the comments 👀
Every day, I bring you the latest crypto-market developments—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 🚀
At 5:22 a.m., the U.S. stock market was still closed. In just six minutes, a batch of U.S. stock positions was wiped out 🦖
In the early hours of October 18, large sell orders suddenly appeared in U.S. stock contracts on crypto platforms. $407,000 was traded in one second, then $1.03 million the next. Less than a second later, 10 addresses collectively sold six contracts—including SNDK, MU, and SOXL—within 1.8 seconds. Every trade opened a new short position.
💬 群里一起聊行情
Six minutes later, trading volume for MU contracts surged to around $10 million per minute, triggering a cascade of liquidations. MU briefly fell to $818.57, 6% below its pre-flash-crash price, then recovered most of the loss within an hour 💥
Accounts holding actual shares were unaffected over the weekend. Those liquidated were people trading contracts with leverage. The price came back; their positions didn’t.
The IMF’s October Global Financial Stability Report gives an even clearer picture: tokenized stocks are about 1.5 times as volatile as their underlying shares. Data from 30 weekends also shows that when the Monday opening gap exceeds 1%, perpetual contracts predict the direction correctly 69% of the time—but by Sunday evening in New York, they reflect only about a quarter of the gap’s size ⚠️
The real change is in the cycle. Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in October 2025, then hit a low of $59,100 in June 2026—a 53% drawdown. Previous bear markets saw drawdowns of 77% to 93%, making this one almost half as deep.
Who’s providing the support? ETFs saw net outflows of about $10 billion from November 2025 to June 2026, including $4.5 billion in June alone. Then $6.3 billion flowed back in from July to September. Stablecoins have contracted just 3% from this year’s peak, compared with 26% in 2022. Tokenized U.S. Treasuries grew from $9 billion to $16 billion and now stand at $14.5 billion, with around 85,500 holders.
But in reality, there’s only one major buyer. The largest bitcoin-treasury company increased its holdings from 650,000 coins to 843,775, adding 194,000. In January this year, it accounted for 97.5% of net purchases by publicly listed companies. It stopped buying after the week of June 22. Relying on a single company’s ability to raise capital for support—that’s the fragile part 📉
On the other hand, the tokenized U.S. stock market is worth around $3.45 billion. Offshore tokenized stock trading volume is just 0.084% of the median volume in traditional markets. Of the 63 stocks, nine issuing companies have directly objected. Each individual large-cap stock is capped at 0.25% of its daily volume; the first 63 stocks together have a daily cap of around $710 million, with Nvidia capped at $64 million.
Put simply, crypto now needs U.S. stocks to smooth out its cycles, but can access them only under Wall Street’s rules. The regulated format best suited to providing stability is also the most heavily restricted. So in the short term, it dampens volatility—not the cycle itself.
My take: It’s getting harder for Bitcoin to chart an independent course this cycle. Earnings season, the Fed, and Treasury yields all feed directly into crypto prices. What could really change the script is whether on-chain capital is willing to treat U.S. stocks as collateral and a place to park funds—not just another high-leverage bet.
Do you think Bitcoin can still have its own four-year cycle, or will it be driven by the Nasdaq and earnings from now on? Let’s talk in the comments 👀
Every day, I bring you the latest crypto-market developments—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 🚀