Of course. Strictly speaking, to determine whether the transmission chain is working smoothly and whether $BTC can rise smoothly, we need to see whether all of the following conditions are met:
Crude oil falls → inflation expectations ease → check whether the 10-year US Treasury yield (US10Y) and the US Dollar Index (DXY) break down in tandem → liquidity is ample → risk assets (US stocks / BTC) rise.
Confirmation criteria:
Crude oil breaks below a key support range;
US10Y weakens accordingly (the market lowers its expectations for medium- to long-term rate hikes or increases bets on rate cuts);
DXY breaks below a moving average or a recent low (signaling strength in non-US assets and an expansion of liquidity).
Trading conclusion: At this point, the transmission chain is working smoothly, and resistance from the macro liquidity tap has eased. Going long on BTC at a pullback to support or a breakout above resistance offers an extremely high probability of success.
Oil falls + US10Y falls + DXY falls → perfect combination of cooling inflation and rising rate-cut expectations → extremely bullish. Go long with the trend when an entry point appears in the order book.
Crude oil falls → inflation expectations ease → check whether the 10-year US Treasury yield (US10Y) and the US Dollar Index (DXY) break down in tandem → liquidity is ample → risk assets (US stocks / BTC) rise.
Confirmation criteria:
Crude oil breaks below a key support range;
US10Y weakens accordingly (the market lowers its expectations for medium- to long-term rate hikes or increases bets on rate cuts);
DXY breaks below a moving average or a recent low (signaling strength in non-US assets and an expansion of liquidity).
Trading conclusion: At this point, the transmission chain is working smoothly, and resistance from the macro liquidity tap has eased. Going long on BTC at a pullback to support or a breakout above resistance offers an extremely high probability of success.
Oil falls + US10Y falls + DXY falls → perfect combination of cooling inflation and rising rate-cut expectations → extremely bullish. Go long with the trend when an entry point appears in the order book.
